# AlphaCast: A Human Wisdom-LLM Intelligence Co-Reasoning Framework for Interactive Time Series Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.08947 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.08947/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Time series reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 37 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Nov 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Time series reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/time-series-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [ReAct: Synergizing Reasoning and Acting in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03629/) (2022)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.09332/) (2021)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [Least-to-Most Prompting Enables Complex Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.10625/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Time-LLM: Time Series Forecasting by Reprogramming Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01728/) (2023)
- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [One Fits All:Power General Time Series Analysis by Pretrained LM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11939/) (2023)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Plan-and-Act: Improving Planning of Agents for Long-Horizon Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09572/) (2025)
- [Sundial: A Family of Highly Capable Time Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.00816/) (2025)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [PromptCast: A New Prompt-based Learning Paradigm for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08964/) (2022)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)
- [Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A review of state-of-the-art algorithms, best practices and an open-access benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08004/) (2020)
- [Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05522/) (2021)
- [LSTPrompt: Large Language Models as Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters by Long-Short-Term Prompting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16132/) (2024)
- [Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17478/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Cast-R1: Learning Tool-Augmented Sequential Decision Policies for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13802/) (2026)
- [Position: Beyond Model-Centric Prediction -- Agentic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01776/) (2026)
- [Nexus : An Agentic Framework for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14389/) (2026)
- [AnomaMind: Agentic Time Series Anomaly Detection with Tool-Augmented Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.13807/) (2026)
- [CastFlow: Learning Role-Specialized Agentic Workflows for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.27840/) (2026)
- [TSQAgent: Rating Time Series Data Quality via Dedicated Agentic Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.03629/) (2026)
- [CastFSR: A Fast--Slow--Reflect Agentic Reasoning Framework for Context-Aware Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.03031/) (2026)
- [CoGenCast: A Coupled Autoregressive-Flow Generative Framework for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03564/) (2026)
- [ReasonCast: Towards Explainable Time Series Forecasting with Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01875/) (2026)
- [MetaCaster: Meta-Harness-Optimized Agent for End-to-End Few-Shot Learning of Lightweight Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.23473/) (2026)
- [A Human-in-the-Loop Autonomous Agent for Industry Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.30976/) (2026)
- [Memory in Deep Time-Series Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06006/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time series forecasting is typically treated as a single-pass numerical prediction task based on historical observations. However, real-world forecasting often requires expert-like reasoning, where temporal patterns, contextual cues, case-based references, and domain knowledge are jointly considered and iteratively revised. Existing statistical, deep learning, foundation, and LLM-based forecasting models mainly rely on pattern fitting, direct prompting, or static context augmentation, leaving interactive and reflective forecasting insufficiently explored. In this work, we propose AlphaCast, a human wisdom-LLM intelligence co-reasoning framework for interactive time series forecasting. AlphaCast does not require real-time human intervention; instead, it operationalizes human wisdom as structured forecasting support, including time-series features, contextual cues, case-based references, and domain knowledge. Built upon an expert-like think-forecast-reflect workflow, AlphaCast comprises three agents: an Investigator that constructs forecasting context from available evidence, a Generator that produces context-grounded forecasts, and a Reflector that evaluates plausibility and provides feedback for refinement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AlphaCast improves forecasting accuracy and produces interpretable forecast explanations, offering a promising step toward interactive and context-aware time series forecasting.