# Confidence-Aware Neural Decoding of Overt Speech from EEG: Toward Robust Brain-Computer Interfaces

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.07890 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.07890/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 11 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [EEGNet: A Compact Convolutional Network for EEG-based Brain-Computer Interfaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.08024/) (2016)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Non-invasive brain-computer interfaces that decode spoken commands from electroencephalogram must be both accurate and trustworthy. We present a confidence-aware decoding framework that couples deep ensembles of compact, speech-oriented convolutional networks with post-hoc calibration and selective classification. Uncertainty is quantified using ensemble-based predictive entropy, top-two margin, and mutual information, and decisions are made with an abstain option governed by an accuracy-coverage operating point. The approach is evaluated on a multi-class overt speech dataset using a leakage-safe, block-stratified split that respects temporal contiguity. Compared with widely used baselines, the proposed method yields more reliable probability estimates, improved selective performance across operating points, and balanced per-class acceptance. These results suggest that confidence-aware neural decoding can provide robust, deployment-oriented behavior for real-world brain-computer interface communication systems.