# Forecasting Thermospheric Density with Transformers for Multi-Satellite Orbit Management

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.06105 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06105/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Gaussian Error Linear Units (GELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08415/) (2016)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [On Large-Batch Training for Deep Learning: Generalization Gap and Sharp Minima](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.04836/) (2016)
- [On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04745/) (2020)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [Transformer-based Atmospheric Density Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16912/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate thermospheric density prediction is crucial for reliable satellite operations in Low Earth Orbits, especially at high solar and geomagnetic activity. Physics-based models such as TIE-GCM offer high fidelity but are computationally expensive, while empirical models like NRLMSIS are efficient yet lack predictive power. This work presents a transformer-based model that forecasts densities up to three days ahead and is intended as a drop-in replacement for an empirical baseline. Unlike recent approaches, it avoids spatial reduction and complex input pipelines, operating directly on a compact input set. Validated on real-world data, the model improves key prediction metrics and shows potential to support mission planning.