# Conditional Neural ODE for Longitudinal Parkinson's Disease Progression Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.04789 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04789/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Large Language Models Are Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.07820/) (2023)
- [Graph ODEs and Beyond: A Comprehensive Survey on Integrating Differential Equations with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.23167/) (2025)
- [KERAP: A Knowledge-Enhanced Reasoning Approach for Accurate Zero-shot Diagnosis Prediction Using Multi-agent LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02773/) (2025)
- [HypKG: Hypergraph-based Knowledge Graph Contextualization for Precision Healthcare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.19726/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Simulator and Experience Enhanced Diffusion Model for Comprehensive ECG Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.09895/) (2025)
- [ECG-MoE: Mixture-of-Expert Electrocardiogram Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.04589/) (2026)
- [Treatment-Conditioned Diffusion for Forecasting Neurodegenerative Disease Progression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29932/) (2026)
- [Beyond Random Partitioning: Unsupervised Spatio-Temporal Stratification for Cohort Balancing in Longitudinal Medical Imaging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.00073/) (2026)
- [Human-Machine Collaboration on Generative Meta-Learning: Model and Algorithm](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.00926/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Parkinson's disease (PD) shows heterogeneous, evolving brain-morphometry patterns. Modeling these longitudinal trajectories enables mechanistic insight, treatment development, and individualized 'digital-twin' forecasting. However, existing methods usually adopt recurrent neural networks and transformer architectures, which rely on discrete, regularly sampled data while struggling to handle irregular and sparse magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in PD cohorts. Moreover, these methods have difficulty capturing individual heterogeneity including variations in disease onset, progression rate, and symptom severity, which is a hallmark of PD. To address these challenges, we propose CNODE (Conditional Neural ODE), a novel framework for continuous, individualized PD progression forecasting. The core of CNODE is to model morphological brain changes as continuous temporal processes using a neural ODE model. In addition, we jointly learn patient-specific initial time and progress speed to align individual trajectories into a shared progression trajectory. We validate CNODE on the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative (PPMI) dataset. Experimental results show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in forecasting longitudinal PD progression.