# Quantifying the Climate Risk of Generative AI: Region-Aware Carbon Accounting with G-TRACE and the AI Sustainability Pyramid

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.04776 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.04776/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 27 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 27 of 27)

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- [DeepSeek-V2: A Strong, Economical, and Efficient Mixture-of-Experts Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04434/) (2024)
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- [Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10350/) (2021)
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- [Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.05433/) (2019)
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- [CASPER: Carbon-Aware Scheduling and Provisioning for Distributed Web Services](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14792/) (2024)
- [AI Regulation in Europe: From the AI Act to Future Regulatory Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04072/) (2023)
- [AI, Climate, and Transparency: Operationalizing and Improving the AI Act](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.07471/) (2024)
- [Mapping the Regulatory Learning Space for the EU AI Act](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.05787/) (2025)
- [Optimizing Large Language Models: Metrics, Energy Efficiency, and Case Study Insights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.06307/) (2025)
- [Estimating the Increase in Emissions caused by AI-augmented Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16894/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) represents a rapidly expanding digital infrastructure whose energy demand and associated CO2 emissions are emerging as a new category of climate risk. This study introduces G-TRACE (GenAI Transformative Carbon Estimator), a cross-modal, region-aware framework that quantifies training- and inference-related emissions across modalities and deployment geographies. Using real-world analytics and microscopic simulation, G-TRACE measures energy use and carbon intensity per output type (text, image, video) and reveals how decentralized inference amplifies small per-query energy costs into system-level impacts. Through the Ghibli-style image generation trend (2024-2025), we estimate 4,309 MWh of energy consumption and 2,068 tCO2 emissions, illustrating how viral participation inflates individual digital actions into tonne-scale consequences. Building on these findings, we propose the AI Sustainability Pyramid, a seven-level governance model linking carbon accounting metrics (L1-L7) with operational readiness, optimization, and stewardship. This framework translates quantitative emission metrics into actionable policy guidance for sustainable AI deployment. The study contributes to the quantitative assessment of emerging digital infrastructures as a novel category of climate risk, supporting adaptive governance for sustainable technology deployment. By situating GenAI within climate-risk frameworks, the work advances data-driven methods for aligning technological innovation with global decarbonization and resilience objectives.