# UnCLe: Towards Scalable Dynamic Causal Discovery in Non-linear Temporal Systems

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.03168 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.03168/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [WaveNet: A Generative Model for Raw Audio](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.03499/) (2016)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.07007/) (2017)
- [DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00498/) (2020)
- [Amortized Causal Discovery: Learning to Infer Causal Graphs from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10833/) (2020)
- [Granger Causality: A Review and Recent Advances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.02675/) (2021)
- [Economy Statistical Recurrent Units For Inferring Nonlinear Granger Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09879/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Models for Granger Causality Using Self-explaining Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.07600/) (2021)
- [Causal Recurrent Variational Autoencoder for Medical Time Series Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.06574/) (2023)
- [CUTS+: High-dimensional Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05890/) (2023)
- [Jacobian Regularizer-based Neural Granger Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.08779/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [SC3D: Dynamic and Differentiable Causal Discovery for Temporal and Instantaneous Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02830/) (2026)
- [Mask2Cause: Temporal Causal Discovery Beyond Causality in Mean](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.07280/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncovering cause-effect relationships from observational time series is fundamental to understanding complex systems. While many methods infer static causal graphs, real-world systems often exhibit dynamic causality-where relationships evolve over time. Accurately capturing these temporal dynamics requires time-resolved causal graphs. We propose UnCLe, a novel deep learning method for scalable dynamic causal discovery. UnCLe employs a pair of Uncoupler and Recoupler networks to disentangle input time series into semantic representations and learns inter-variable dependencies via auto-regressive Dependency Matrices. It estimates dynamic causal influences by analyzing datapoint-wise prediction errors induced by temporal perturbations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UnCLe not only outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on static causal discovery benchmarks but, more importantly, exhibits a unique capability to accurately capture and represent evolving temporal causality in both synthetic and real-world dynamic systems (e.g., human motion). UnCLe offers a promising approach for revealing the underlying, time-varying mechanisms of complex phenomena.