# Sensitivity Analysis for Climate Science with Generative Flow Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.00663 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.00663/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Nov 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Adding Conditional Control to Text-to-Image Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05543/) (2023)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Stochastic Interpolants: A Unifying Framework for Flows and Diffusions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08797/) (2023)
- [Automatic differentiation in machine learning: a survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.05767/) (2015)
- [DEFT: Efficient Fine-Tuning of Diffusion Models by Learning the Generalised h-transform](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.01781/) (2024)
- [Conditioning Diffusions Using Malliavin Calculus](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.03461/) (2025)
- [Using Deep Learning to Identify Initial Error Sensitivity for Interpretable ENSO Forecasts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15419/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Sensitivity analysis is a cornerstone of climate science, essential for understanding phenomena ranging from storm intensity to long-term climate feedbacks. However, computing these sensitivities using traditional physical models is often prohibitively expensive in terms of both computation and development time. While modern AI-based generative models are orders of magnitude faster to evaluate, computing sensitivities with them remains a significant bottleneck. This work addresses this challenge by applying the adjoint state method for calculating gradients in generative flow models. We apply this method to the cBottle generative model, trained on ERA5 and ICON data, to perform sensitivity analysis of any atmospheric variable with respect to sea surface temperatures. We quantitatively validate the computed sensitivities against the model's own outputs. Our results provide initial evidence that this approach can produce reliable gradients, reducing the computational cost of sensitivity analysis from weeks on a supercomputer with a physical model to hours on a GPU, thereby simplifying a critical workflow in climate science. The code can be found at https://github.com/Kwartzl8/cbottle_adjoint_sensitivity.