# Leveraging an Atmospheric Foundational Model for Subregional Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25563 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.25563/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 56 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [On the Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.07258/) (2021)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer V2: Scaling Up Capacity and Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.09883/) (2021)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Perceiver IO: A General Architecture for Structured Inputs & Outputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.14795/) (2021)
- [Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for fluid mechanics: A review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.09506/) (2021)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Learnable Fourier Features for Multi-Dimensional Spatial Positional Encoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.02795/) (2021)
- [Regional Ocean Forecasting with Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.11807/) (2024)
- [Deep Learning Weather Models for Subregional Ocean Forecasting: A Case Study on the Canary Current Upwelling System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24429/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Ensemble Graph Neural Networks for Probabilistic Sea Surface Temperature Forecasting via Input Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.06153/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The accurate prediction of oceanographic variables is crucial for understanding climate change, managing marine resources, and optimizing maritime activities. Traditional ocean forecasting relies on numerical models; however, these approaches face limitations in terms of computational cost and scalability. In this study, we adapt Aurora, a foundational deep learning model originally designed for atmospheric forecasting, to predict sea surface temperature (SST) in the Canary Upwelling System. By fine-tuning this model with high-resolution oceanographic reanalysis data, we demonstrate its ability to capture complex spatiotemporal patterns while reducing computational demands. Our methodology involves a staged fine-tuning process, incorporating latitude-weighted error metrics and optimizing hyperparameters for efficient learning. The experimental results show that the model achieves a low RMSE of 0.119K, maintaining high anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC ≈ 0.997). The model successfully reproduces large-scale SST structures but faces challenges in capturing finer details in coastal regions. This work contributes to the field of data-driven ocean forecasting by demonstrating the feasibility of using deep learning models pre-trained in different domains for oceanic applications. Future improvements include integrating additional oceanographic variables, increasing spatial resolution, and exploring physics-informed neural networks to enhance interpretability and understanding. These advancements can improve climate modeling and ocean prediction accuracy, supporting decision-making in environmental and economic sectors.