# Aggregation Hides Out-of-Distribution Generalization Failures from Spurious Correlations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24884 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24884/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 62 of its 93 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 62)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [BLIP-2: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training with Frozen Image Encoders and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12597/) (2023)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [MobileNets: Efficient Convolutional Neural Networks for Mobile Vision Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04861/) (2017)
- [Qwen2 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.10671/) (2024)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04730/) (2017)
- [Understanding deep learning requires rethinking generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.03530/) (2016)
- [CheXpert: A Large Chest Radiograph Dataset with Uncertainty Labels and Expert Comparison](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.07031/) (2019)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08731/) (2019)
- [In Search of Lost Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01434/) (2020)
- [Deeper, Broader and Artier Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.03077/) (2017)
- [ChestX-ray8: Hospital-scale Chest X-ray Database and Benchmarks on Weakly-Supervised Classification and Localization of Common Thorax Diseases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.02315/) (2017)
- [Adversarial Examples Are Not Bugs, They Are Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.02175/) (2019)
- [Reconciling modern machine learning practice and the bias-variance trade-off](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.11118/) (2018)
- [Semantics derived automatically from language corpora contain human-like biases](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.07187/) (2016)
- [Generalizing to Unseen Domains: A Survey on Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03097/) (2021)
- [Domain Generalization: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.02503/) (2021)
- [Out-of-Distribution Generalization via Risk Extrapolation (REx)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.00688/) (2020)
- [Recognition in Terra Incognita](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.04975/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Rank-Constrained Adaptation for Reliable Real-World Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.06924/) (2026)
- [A Causal Framework for Mitigating Data Shifts in Healthcare](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.13595/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Benchmarks for out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization frequently show a strong positive correlation between in-distribution (ID) and OOD accuracy across models, termed "accuracy-on-the-line." This pattern is often taken to imply that spurious correlations - correlations that improve ID but reduce OOD performance - are rare in practice. We find that this positive correlation is often an artifact of aggregating heterogeneous OOD examples. Using a simple gradient-based method, OODSelect, we identify semantically coherent OOD subsets where accuracy on the line does not hold. Across widely used distribution shift benchmarks, the OODSelect uncovers subsets, sometimes over half of the standard OOD set, where higher ID accuracy predicts lower OOD accuracy. Our findings indicate that aggregate metrics can obscure important failure modes of OOD robustness. We release code and the identified subsets to facilitate further research.