# DistDF: Time-Series Forecasting Needs Joint-Distribution Wasserstein Alignment

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24574 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.24574/

## Key facts

- Cited by 13 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 57 of its 93 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 57)

- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Computational Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00567/) (2018)
- [Optimal Transport for Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1507.00504/) (2015)
- [TimeMixer: Decomposable Multiscale Mixing for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14616/) (2024)
- [SCINet: Time Series Modeling and Forecasting with Sample Convolution and Interaction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09305/) (2021)
- [Joint Distribution Optimal Transportation for Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08848/) (2017)
- [Soft-DTW: a Differentiable Loss Function for Time-Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01541/) (2017)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [Foundation Models for Time Series Analysis: A Tutorial and Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.14735/) (2024)
- [Near-linear time approximation algorithms for optimal transport via Sinkhorn iteration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.09634/) (2017)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [Frequency-domain MLPs are More Effective Learners in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06184/) (2023)
- [FourierGNN: Rethinking Multivariate Time Series Forecasting from a Pure Graph Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06190/) (2023)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)
- [DUET: Dual Clustering Enhanced Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.10859/) (2024)
- [CycleNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting through Modeling Periodic Patterns](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18479/) (2024)
- [Scalable Gromov-Wasserstein Learning for Graph Partitioning and Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07645/) (2019)
- [FreDF: Learning to Forecast in the Frequency Domain](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02399/) (2024)
- [Shape and Time Distortion Loss for Training Deep Time Series Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09020/) (2019)
- [TimeFilter: Patch-Specific Spatial-Temporal Graph Filtration for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13041/) (2025)
- [Vocabulary Learning via Optimal Transport for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15671/) (2020)
- [From Fourier to Koopman: Spectral Methods for Long-term Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.00574/) (2020)
- [Fredformer: Frequency Debiased Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09009/) (2024)
- [DBLoss: Decomposition-based Loss Function for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23672/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [GCGNet: Graph-Consistent Generative Network for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.08032/) (2026)
- [From Observations to States: Latent Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00297/) (2026)
- [PHAT: Modeling Period Heterogeneity for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00654/) (2026)
- [Optimal Transport for LLM Reward Modeling from Noisy Preference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06036/) (2026)
- [Deep Time-series Forecasting Needs Kernelized Moment Balancing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00717/) (2026)
- [ST-EVO: Towards Generative Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Multi-Agent Communication Topologies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14681/) (2026)
- [Multivariate Time Series Forecasting needs Cross Variable Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05742/) (2026)
- [Rethinking the Flow-Based Gradual Domain Adaptation: A Semi-Dual Optimal Transport Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.01179/) (2026)
- [Slack More, Predict Better: Proximal Relaxation for Probabilistic Latent Variable Model-based Soft Sensors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.11473/) (2026)
- [Deep Time-Series Forecasting in 10 Years: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19899/) (2026)
- [CoRe: Coherence and Relational Alignment for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.19670/) (2026)
- [XMatch: Enhancing Covariate-Aware Time Series Forecasting through Tree-Structured Exogenous Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.34939/) (2026)
- [Beyond Model Ranking: Regime Diagnosis for Distributional-Statistical Misspecification in Industrial Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.40117/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Training time-series forecasting models requires aligning the conditional distribution of model forecasts with that of the label sequence. The standard direct forecast (DF) approach resorts to minimizing the conditional negative log-likelihood, typically estimated by the mean squared error. However, this estimation proves biased when the label sequence exhibits autocorrelation. In this paper, we propose DistDF, which achieves alignment by minimizing a distributional discrepancy between the conditional distributions of forecast and label sequences. Since such conditional discrepancies are difficult to estimate from finite time-series observations, we introduce a joint-distribution Wasserstein discrepancy for time-series forecasting, which provably upper bounds the conditional discrepancy of interest. The proposed discrepancy is tractable, differentiable, and readily compatible with gradient-based optimization. Extensive experiments show that DistDF improves diverse forecasting models and achieves leading performance. Code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DistDF-F66B.