# Traffic flow forecasting, STL decomposition, Hybrid model, LSTM, ARIMA, XGBoost, Intelligent transportation systems

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.23668 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23668/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 5 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 26 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [RobustSTL: A Robust Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Algorithm for Long Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.01767/) (2018)
- [TrafficStream: A Streaming Traffic Flow Forecasting Framework Based on Graph Neural Networks and Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06273/) (2021)
- [Predictive Modeling of Flexible EHD Pumps using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07488/) (2024)
- [Enhanced Visual SLAM for Collision-free Driving with Lightweight Autonomous Cars](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11582/) (2024)
- [Enhanced Mean Field Game for Interactive Decision-Making with Varied Stylish Multi-Vehicles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.00981/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate traffic flow forecasting is essential for intelligent transportation systems and urban traffic management. However, single model approaches often fail to capture the complex, nonlinear, and multi scale temporal patterns in traffic flow data. This study proposes a decomposition driven hybrid framework that integrates Seasonal Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) with three complementary predictive models. STL first decomposes the original time series into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Then, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network models long term trends, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model captures seasonal periodicity, and an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm predicts nonlinear residual fluctuations. The final forecast is obtained through multiplicative integration of the sub model predictions. Using 998 traffic flow records from a New York City intersection between November and December 2015, results show that the LSTM ARIMA XGBoost hybrid model significantly outperforms standalone models including LSTM, ARIMA, and XGBoost across MAE, RMSE, and R squared metrics. The decomposition strategy effectively isolates temporal characteristics, allowing each model to specialize, thereby improving prediction accuracy, interpretability, and robustness.