# What are the odds? Risk and uncertainty about AI existential risk

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.23453 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.23453/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 0 of its 16 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 27 Oct 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Are we Doomed to an AI Race? Why Self-Interest Could Drive Countries Towards a Moratorium on Superintelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.01297/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This work is a commentary of the article hrefhttps://doi.org/10.18716/ojs/phai/2025.2801AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk by Cappelen, Goldstein, and Hawthorne. It is not just a commentary though, but a useful reminder of the philosophical limitations of saylinear models of risk. The article will focus on the model employed by the authors: first, I discuss some differences between standard Swiss Cheese models and this one. I then argue that in a situation of epistemic indifference the probability of P(D) is higher than what one might first suggest, given the structural relationships between layers. I then distinguish between risk and uncertainty, and argue that any estimation of P(D) is structurally affected by two kinds of uncertainty: option uncertainty and state-space uncertainty. Incorporating these dimensions of uncertainty into our qualitative discussion on AI existential risk can provide a better understanding of the likeliness of P(D).