# A Multi-level Analysis of Factors Associated with Student Performance: A Machine Learning Approach to the SAEB Microdata

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22266 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.22266/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 77 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Explanation in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Social Sciences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07269/) (2017)
- [Opportunities and Challenges in Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11371/) (2020)
- [CatBoost: gradient boosting with categorical features support](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11363/) (2018)
- [Tunability: Importance of Hyperparameters of Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09596/) (2018)
- [A Comparative Analysis of XGBoost](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.01914/) (2019)
- [A Robust Pipeline for Differentially Private Federated Learning on Imbalanced Clinical Data using SMOTETomek and FedProx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10017/) (2025)
- [Human-Centric eXplainable AI in Education](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19822/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Identifying the factors that influence student performance in basic education is a central challenge for formulating effective public policies in Brazil. This study introduces a multi-level machine learning approach to classify the proficiency of 9th-grade and high school students using microdata from the System of Assessment of Basic Education (SAEB). Our model uniquely integrates four data sources: student socioeconomic characteristics, teacher professional profiles, school indicators, and principal management profiles. A comparative analysis of four ensemble algorithms confirmed the superiority of a Random Forest model, which achieved 90.2% accuracy and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 96.7%. To move beyond prediction, we applied Explainable AI (XAI) using SHAP, which revealed that the school's average socioeconomic level is the most dominant predictor, demonstrating that systemic factors have a greater impact than individual characteristics in isolation. The primary conclusion is that academic performance is a systemic phenomenon deeply tied to the school's ecosystem. This study provides a data-driven, interpretable tool to inform policies aimed at promoting educational equity by addressing disparities between schools.