# Accident Anticipation via Temporal Occurrence Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22260 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.22260/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [SlowFast Networks for Video Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03982/) (2018)
- [Uncertainty-based Traffic Accident Anticipation with Spatio-Temporal Relational Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.00334/) (2020)
- [Unsupervised Traffic Accident Detection in First-Person Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.00618/) (2019)
- [DADA: Driver Attention Prediction in Driving Accident Scenarios](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.12148/) (2019)
- [DADA-2000: Can Driving Accident be Predicted by Driver Attention? Analyzed by A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.12634/) (2019)
- [Anticipating Traffic Accidents with Adaptive Loss and Large-scale Incident DB](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.02675/) (2018)
- [DRIVE: Deep Reinforced Accident Anticipation with Visual Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.10189/) (2021)
- [Abductive Ego-View Accident Video Understanding for Safe Driving Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.00436/) (2024)
- [A Dynamic Spatial-temporal Attention Network for Early Anticipation of Traffic Accidents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.10197/) (2021)
- [CADP: A Novel Dataset for CCTV Traffic Camera based Accident Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.05782/) (2018)
- [Agent-Centric Risk Assessment: Accident Anticipation and Risky Region Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.06560/) (2017)
- [Vision-Based Traffic Accident Detection and Anticipation: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15985/) (2023)
- [Nexar Dashcam Collision Prediction Dataset and Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.03848/) (2025)
- [Cognitive Accident Prediction in Driving Scenes: A Multimodality Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09381/) (2022)
- [CRASH: Crash Recognition and Anticipation System Harnessing with Context-Aware and Temporal Focus Attentions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.17757/) (2024)
- [Real-time Accident Anticipation for Autonomous Driving Through Monocular Depth-Enhanced 3D Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.01256/) (2024)
- [Real-time Traffic Accident Anticipation with Feature Reuse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17449/) (2025)
- [Domain-Enhanced Dual-Branch Model for Efficient and Interpretable Accident Anticipation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12755/) (2025)
- [When, Where, and What? A Novel Benchmark for Accident Anticipation and Localization with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.16277/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [RiskProp: Collision-Anchored Self-Supervised Risk Propagation for Early Accident Anticipation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.27165/) (2026)
- [Comparison-Based Ordinal Learning for Proactive Driving Risk Assessment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.11128/) (2026)
- [Observe Before You Alert: Adaptive Driver Alerting with Vision-Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08130/) (2026)
- [Progressive Risk Estimation for Accident Anticipation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32811/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accident anticipation aims to predict potential collisions in an online manner, enabling timely alerts to enhance road safety. Existing methods typically predict frame-level risk scores as indicators of hazard. However, these approaches rely on ambiguous binary supervision (labeling all frames in accident videos as positive) despite the fact that risk varies continuously over time, leading to unreliable learning and false alarms. To address this, we propose a novel paradigm that shifts the prediction target from current-frame risk scoring to directly estimating accident scores at multiple future time steps (e.g., 0.1s-2.0s ahead), leveraging precisely annotated accident timestamps as supervision. Our method employs a snippet-level encoder to jointly model spatial and temporal dynamics, and a Transformer-based temporal decoder that predicts accident scores for all future horizons simultaneously using dedicated temporal queries. Furthermore, we introduce a refined evaluation protocol that reports Time-to-Accident (TTA) and recall (evaluated at multiple pre-accident intervals (0.5s, 1.0s, and 1.5s)) only when the false alarm rate (FAR) remains within an acceptable range, ensuring practical relevance. Experiments show that our method achieves superior performance in both recall and TTA under realistic FAR constraints.