# RETuning: Upgrading Inference-Time Scaling for Stock Movement Prediction with Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21604 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21604/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning for agents, planning and code, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 31 of its 69 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning for agents, planning and code](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-for-agents-planning-and-code/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 31)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [WebGPT: Browser-assisted question-answering with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.09332/) (2021)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Solving math word problems with process- and outcome-based feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14275/) (2022)
- [Reinforced Self-Training (ReST) for Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.08998/) (2023)
- [Large Language Model Guided Tree-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.08291/) (2023)
- [More Agents Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05120/) (2024)
- [AlphaMath Almost Zero: Process Supervision without Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03553/) (2024)
- [S*: Test Time Scaling for Code Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14382/) (2025)
- [LLaMA-Berry: Pairwise Optimization for O1-like Olympiad-Level Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02884/) (2024)
- [Fin-R1: A Large Language Model for Financial Reasoning through Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16252/) (2025)
- [o1-Coder: an o1 Replication for Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00154/) (2024)
- [Adaptive Inference-Time Compute: LLMs Can Predict if They Can Do Better, Even Mid-Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.02725/) (2024)
- [TreeBoN: Enhancing Inference-Time Alignment with Speculative Tree-Search and Best-of-N Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.16033/) (2024)
- [Confidence Matters: Revisiting Intrinsic Self-Correction Capabilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12563/) (2024)
- [Reasoning in Token Economies: Budget-Aware Evaluation of LLM Reasoning Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06461/) (2024)
- [Confidence v.s. Critique: A Decomposition of Self-Correction Capability for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.19513/) (2024)
- [Does RLHF Scale? Exploring the Impacts From Data, Model, and Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06000/) (2024)
- [PairJudge RM: Perform Best-of-N Sampling with Knockout Tournament](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.13007/) (2025)
- [BizFinBench: A Business-Driven Real-World Financial Benchmark for Evaluating LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19457/) (2025)
- [No Train Still Gain. Unleash Mathematical Reasoning of Large Language Models with Monte Carlo Tree Search Guided by Energy Function](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03224/) (2023)
- [ProgCo: Program Helps Self-Correction of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.01264/) (2025)
- [Not All Votes Count! Programs as Verifiers Improve Self-Consistency of Language Models for Math Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12608/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [FinMTM: A Multi-Turn Multimodal Benchmark for Financial Reasoning and Agent Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03130/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated outstanding reasoning capabilities on mathematical and coding tasks. However, their application to financial tasks-especially the most fundamental task of stock movement prediction-remains underexplored. We study a three-class classification problem (up, hold, down) and, by analyzing existing reasoning responses, observe that: (1) LLMs follow analysts' opinions rather than exhibit a systematic, independent analytical logic (CoTs). (2) LLMs list summaries from different sources without weighing adversarial evidence, yet such counterevidence is crucial for reliable prediction. It shows that the model does not make good use of its reasoning ability to complete the task. To address this, we propose Reflective Evidence Tuning (RETuning), a cold-start method prior to reinforcement learning, to enhance prediction ability. While generating CoT, RETuning encourages dynamically constructing an analytical framework from diverse information sources, organizing and scoring evidence for price up or down based on that framework-rather than on contextual viewpoints-and finally reflecting to derive the prediction. This approach maximally aligns the model with its learned analytical framework, ensuring independent logical reasoning and reducing undue influence from context. We also build a large-scale dataset spanning all of 2024 for 5,123 A-share stocks, with long contexts (32K tokens) and over 200K samples. In addition to price and news, it incorporates analysts' opinions, quantitative reports, fundamental data, macroeconomic indicators, and similar stocks. Experiments show that RETuning successfully unlocks the model's reasoning ability in the financial domain. Inference-time scaling still works even after 6 months or on out-of-distribution stocks, since the models gain valuable insights about stock movement prediction.