# Can Confidence Estimates Decide When Chain-of-Thought Is Necessary for LLMs?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.21007 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.21007/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 43 of its 54 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Prompting and chain-of-thought reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/prompting-and-chain-of-thought-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 43)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10925/) (2025)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Did Aristotle Use a Laptop? A Question Answering Benchmark with Implicit Reasoning Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02235/) (2021)
- [AGIEval: A Human-Centric Benchmark for Evaluating Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.06364/) (2023)
- [RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18665/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [To CoT or not to CoT? Chain-of-thought helps mainly on math and symbolic reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12183/) (2024)
- [Semantic Entropy Probes: Robust and Cheap Hallucination Detection in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.15927/) (2024)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [MuSR: Testing the Limits of Chain-of-thought with Multistep Soft Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16049/) (2023)
- [Are We Done with MMLU?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04127/) (2024)
- [GraphRouter: A Graph-based Router for LLM Selections](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03834/) (2024)
- [Reasoning Models Know When They're Right: Probing Hidden States for Self-Verification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.05419/) (2025)
- [DAST: Difficulty-Adaptive Slow-Thinking for Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04472/) (2025)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Beyond Binary Rewards: Training LMs to Reason About Their Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.16806/) (2025)
- [Mind Your Step (by Step): Chain-of-Thought can Reduce Performance on Tasks where Thinking Makes Humans Worse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21333/) (2024)
- [On Verbalized Confidence Scores for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14737/) (2024)
- [Learn to Reason Efficiently with Adaptive Length-based Reward Shaping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15612/) (2025)
- [Learning to Route LLMs with Confidence Tokens](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13284/) (2024)
- [Think Only When You Need with Large Hybrid-Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.14631/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Colon-X: Advancing Intelligent Colonoscopy toward Clinical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.03667/) (2025)
- [When Should Agents Think? Adaptive Reasoning via Cross-Turn Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.12061/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting is a common technique for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). However, extended reasoning is often unnecessary and substantially increases token usage. As such, a key question becomes how to optimally allocate compute to when reasoning is actually needed. We study this through confidence-gated CoT, where a model produces a direct answer and a confidence estimate to decide whether to invoke CoT. We present an evaluation framework together with the first systematic study of confidence signals for this decision. We evaluate four representative confidence measures and compare them with random gating and an oracle upper bound. Experiments across two model families and diverse reasoning tasks show that existing training-free confidence measures can reduce redundant reasoning. However, we also find that the utility of individual confidence measures is inconsistent across settings. Through our evaluation framework and analysis, our study provides practical guidance toward developing and evaluating models that selectively use CoT.