# Capturing Intransitive Dominance in Tennis Forecasting: A Graph Neural Network Approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20454 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.20454/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks on Graphs with Fast Localized Spectral Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09375/) (2016)
- [MagNet: A Neural Network for Directed Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11391/) (2021)
- [Graph Neural Networks for temporal graphs: State of the art, open challenges, and opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01018/) (2023)
- [PyTorch Geometric Signed Directed: A Software Package on Graph Neural Networks for Signed and Directed Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10793/) (2022)
- [GNNRank: Learning Global Rankings from Pairwise Comparisons via Directed Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00211/) (2022)
- [An application of incomplete pairwise comparison matrices for ranking top tennis players](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.00538/) (2016)
- [Graph Neural Networks to Predict Sports Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.14124/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Intransitive player dominance, where player A beats B, B beats C, but C beats A, is common in competitive tennis. Yet, there are few known attempts to incorporate it within forecasting methods. We address this problem with a graph neural network approach that explicitly models these intransitive relationships through temporal directed graphs, with players as nodes and their historical match outcomes as directed edges. Our model (65.7% accuracy, 0.214 Brier score) forecasts competitively with established rating systems such as Weighted Elo. Although it does not improve on the baseline in unconditional accuracy, a forecast-encompassing test shows that it carries complementary information. A combined forecast significantly outperforms Weighted Elo, and there is some indication that the gain grows more strongly on the intransitive matchups our model targets. A graph-based representation of player interactions thus captures a forecasting signal that transitive rating systems discard, even between players who share no common opponents.