# The Lock-In Phase Hypothesis: Identity Consolidation as a Precursor to AGI

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20190 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.20190/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 23 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Direct Preference Optimization: Your Language Model is Secretly a Reward Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18290/) (2023)
- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [Finetuned Language Models Are Zero-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01652/) (2021)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [Constitutional AI: Harmlessness from AI Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08073/) (2022)
- [Scaling Instruction-Finetuned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11416/) (2022)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [Sparse Autoencoders Find Highly Interpretable Features in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08600/) (2023)
- [Fine-tuning Aligned Language Models Compromises Safety, Even When Users Do Not Intend To!](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03693/) (2023)
- [Steering Llama 2 via Contrastive Activation Addition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06681/) (2023)
- [Steering Language Models With Activation Engineering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.10248/) (2023)
- [Super-NaturalInstructions: Generalization via Declarative Instructions on 1600+ NLP Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07705/) (2022)
- [Sleeper Agents: Training Deceptive LLMs that Persist Through Safety Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05566/) (2024)
- [Persona Vectors: Monitoring and Controlling Character Traits in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.21509/) (2025)
- [Emergent Misalignment: Narrow finetuning can produce broadly misaligned LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17424/) (2025)
- [Grokking as the Transition from Lazy to Rich Training Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06110/) (2023)
- [Stress Testing Deliberative Alignment for Anti-Scheming Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.15541/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Frontier Models for Stealth and Situational Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.01420/) (2025)
- [The Complexity Dynamics of Grokking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.09810/) (2024)
- [Critical Learning Periods Emerge Even in Deep Linear Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.12221/) (2023)
- [One Period to Rule Them All: Identifying Critical Learning Periods in Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.15954/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) remain broadly open and highly steerable: they imitate at scale, accept arbitrary system prompts, and readily adopt multiple personae. By analogy to human development, we hypothesize that progress toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) involves a lock-in phase: a transition from open imitation to identity consolidation, in which goal structures, refusals, preferences, and internal representations become comparatively stable and resistant to external steering. We formalize this phase, link it to known phenomena in learning dynamics, and propose operational metrics for onset detection. Experimentally, we demonstrate that while the behavioral consolidation is rapid and non-linear, its side-effects on general capabilities are not monolithic. Our results reveal a spectrum of outcomes--from performance trade-offs in small models, through largely cost-free adoption in mid-scale models, to transient instabilities in large, quantized models. We argue that such consolidation is a prerequisite for AGI-level reliability and also a critical control point for safety: identities can be deliberately engineered for reliability, yet may also emerge spontaneously during scaling, potentially hardening unpredictable goals and behaviors.