# Speculative Sampling for Parametric Temporal Point Processes

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.20031 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.20031/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [On the Properties of Neural Machine Translation: Encoder-Decoder Approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1259/) (2014)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Better & Faster Large Language Models via Multi-token Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19737/) (2024)
- [Blockwise Parallel Decoding for Deep Autoregressive Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.03115/) (2018)
- [Transformer Hawkes Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09291/) (2020)
- [ProphetNet: Predicting Future N-gram for Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04063/) (2020)
- [Intensity-Free Learning of Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12127/) (2019)
- [Fully Neural Network based Model for General Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.09690/) (2019)
- [Neural Temporal Point Processes: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03528/) (2021)
- [Community Interaction and Conflict on the Web](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.03697/) (2018)
- [EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08097/) (2023)
- [HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.01753/) (2022)
- [SNAP: A General Purpose Network Analysis and Graph Mining Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.07550/) (2016)
- [Add and Thin: Diffusion for Temporal Point Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01139/) (2023)
- [Tick: a Python library for statistical learning, with a particular emphasis on time-dependent modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.03003/) (2017)
- [HoTPP Benchmark: Are We Good at the Long Horizon Events Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14341/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Temporal point processes are powerful generative models for event sequences that capture complex dependencies in time-series data. They are commonly specified using autoregressive models that learn the distribution of the next event from the previous events. This makes sampling inherently sequential, limiting efficiency. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on rejection sampling that enables exact sampling of multiple future values from existing TPP models, in parallel, and without requiring any architectural changes or retraining. Besides theoretical guarantees, our method demonstrates empirical speedups on real-world datasets, bridging the gap between expressive modeling and efficient parallel generation for large-scale TPP applications.