# Learning Granger Causality under Latent Confounding via Intervention-Induced Heterogeneity

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.19138 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.19138/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 22 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [Causal inference using invariant prediction: identification and confidence intervals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1501.01332/) (2015)
- [Differentiable Causal Discovery from Interventional Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01754/) (2020)
- [DYNOTEARS: Structure Learning from Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00498/) (2020)
- [Causal Discovery from Heterogeneous/Nonstationary Data with Independent Changes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.01672/) (2019)
- [Invariant Causal Prediction for Nonlinear Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08576/) (2017)
- [High-recall causal discovery for autocorrelated time series with latent confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01884/) (2020)
- [Characterizing and Learning Equivalence Classes of Causal DAGs under Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.06310/) (2018)
- [Invariant Causal Prediction for Sequential Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08058/) (2017)
- [Economy Statistical Recurrent Units For Inferring Nonlinear Granger Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09879/) (2019)
- [Causal Structure Learning: a Combinatorial Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.01152/) (2022)
- [Interpretable Models for Granger Causality Using Self-explaining Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.07600/) (2021)
- [CUTS+: High-dimensional Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05890/) (2023)
- [CUTS: Neural Causal Discovery from Irregular Time-Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07458/) (2023)
- [CausalRivers -- Scaling up benchmarking of causal discovery for real-world time-series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.17452/) (2025)
- [Learning Flexible Time-windowed Granger Causality Integrating Heterogeneous Interventional Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.10419/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Granger causality characterizes directed predictive dependencies in multivariate time series, but recovering such dependencies becomes challenging in the presence of latent confounding. Cross-environment invariance provides a natural source of information in heterogeneous settings, yet invariance alone can be insufficient: when latent-to-observed mechanisms remain stable, hidden confounders can induce predictive dependencies that are just as invariant as genuine Granger-causal relations. We show that interventions provide an additional source of identifying information by inducing structured variation in observed mechanisms, while stable latent pathways need not exhibit the same cross-environment changes. In practice, however, neither the intervened environments nor the affected mechanisms are known. We propose GRACE, a framework for learning Granger causality under latent confounding from intervention-induced heterogeneity. GRACE decomposes multivariate dynamics into a shared Granger mechanism, sparse environment-specific deviations that capture edge-level interventions, and a latent component that accounts for confounding. Under a linear generative model, we show that GRACE can recover which environments intervene on a given edge when the edge is perturbed in at least one but fewer than half of the environments and the intervention effect is sufficiently large to survive sparsity shrinkage; the recovered intervention pattern then provides a certificate for the corresponding Granger causal edge. Experiments on synthetic and real-world time series demonstrate improved Granger causal structure recovery under latent confounding and unknown interventions.