# Online Time Series Forecasting with Theoretical Guarantees

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18281 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.18281/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 55 of its 85 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 21 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Gradient Episodic Memory for Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08840/) (2017)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Reformer: The Efficient Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04451/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Combining Recurrent, Convolutional, and Continuous-time Models with Linear State-Space Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.13985/) (2021)
- [Variational Autoencoders and Nonlinear ICA: A Unifying Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.04809/) (2019)
- [On the Parameterization and Initialization of Diagonal State Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.11893/) (2022)
- [Online Continual Learning with Maximally Interfered Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.04742/) (2019)
- [Self-Supervised Learning with Data Augmentations Provably Isolates Content from Style](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04619/) (2021)
- [Nonlinear ICA Using Auxiliary Variables and Generalized Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.08651/) (2018)
- [Unsupervised Feature Extraction by Time-Contrastive Learning and Nonlinear ICA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.06336/) (2016)
- [Advances in Variational Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05597/) (2017)
- [Task-Free Continual Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.03596/) (2018)
- [Less Is More: Fast Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Light Sampling-oriented MLP Structures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.01186/) (2022)
- [CITRIS: Causal Identifiability from Temporal Intervened Sequences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03169/) (2022)
- [ICE-BeeM: Identifiable Conditional Energy-Based Deep Models Based on Nonlinear ICA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11537/) (2020)
- [Learning Temporally Causal Latent Processes from General Temporal Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05428/) (2021)
- [The Incomplete Rosetta Stone Problem: Identifiability Results for Multi-View Nonlinear ICA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06642/) (2019)
- [On the Identifiability of Nonlinear ICA: Sparsity and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07751/) (2022)
- [Hidden Markov Nonlinear ICA: Unsupervised Learning from Nonstationary Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12107/) (2020)
- [OneNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting Models under Concept Drift by Online Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12659/) (2023)
- [Multi-View Causal Representation Learning with Partial Observability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04056/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Towards Universal Representation-Based Process Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.30790/) (2026)
- [Towards Identifiable Representations under Misspecified Structure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33273/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper is concerned with online time series forecasting, where unknown distribution shifts occur over time, i.e., latent variables influence the mapping from historical to future observations. To develop an automated way of online time series forecasting, we propose a Theoretical framework for Online Time-series forecasting (TOT in short) with theoretical guarantees. Specifically, we prove that supplying a forecaster with latent variables tightens the Bayes risk, the benefit endures under estimation uncertainty of latent variables and grows as the latent variables achieve a more precise identifiability. To better introduce latent variables into online forecasting algorithms, we further propose to identify latent variables with minimal adjacent observations. Based on these results, we devise a model-agnostic blueprint by employing a temporal decoder to match the distribution of observed variables and two independent noise estimators to model the causal inference of latent variables and mixing procedures of observed variables, respectively. Experiment results on synthetic data support our theoretical claims. Moreover, plug-in implementations built on several baselines yield general improvement across multiple benchmarks, highlighting the effectiveness in real-world applications.