# Mapping from Meaning: Addressing the Miscalibration of Prompt-Sensitive Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.17028 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.17028/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 20 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Fantastically Ordered Prompts and Where to Find Them: Overcoming Few-Shot Prompt Order Sensitivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08786/) (2021)
- [Large Language Models Can Be Easily Distracted by Irrelevant Context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00093/) (2023)
- [Quantifying Language Models' Sensitivity to Spurious Features in Prompt Design or: How I learned to start worrying about prompt formatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11324/) (2023)
- [Grokking: Generalization Beyond Overfitting on Small Algorithmic Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.02177/) (2022)
- [Calibration of Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.07892/) (2020)
- [Embers of Autoregression: Understanding Large Language Models Through the Problem They are Trained to Solve](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.13638/) (2023)
- [Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08718/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Diagnosing the Reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge via Item Response Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.00521/) (2026)
- [Beyond Accuracy: Policy Invariance as a Reliability Test for LLM Safety Judges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06161/) (2026)
- [Semantic Uncertainty Quantification of Hallucinations in LLMs: A Quantum Tensor Network Based Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.20026/) (2026)
- [Robust LLM-based Column Type Annotation via Prompt Augmentation with LoRA Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.22742/) (2025)
- [When Evidence Conflicts: Uncertainty and Order Effects in Retrieval-Augmented Biomedical Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14115/) (2026)
- [When Policies Change Probabilities: Modular Decision-Making for LLM Code Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.02677/) (2026)
- [Disentangling Deception and Hallucination Failures in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.14529/) (2026)
- [Distributional Process Reward Models: Calibrated Prediction of Future Rewards via Conditional Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.06785/) (2026)
- [Beyond Appearance Shifts: Task-Semantic Action Calibration for VLA Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.23650/) (2026)
- [Conformal Prediction with Paraphrase-Aware Scoring for LLM Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.04239/) (2026)
- [DelegationBench: Measuring When AI Agents Should Ask Before Acting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05532/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

An interesting behavior in large language models (LLMs) is prompt sensitivity. When provided with different but semantically equivalent versions of the same prompt, models may produce very different distributions of answers. This suggests that the uncertainty reflected in a model's output distribution for one prompt may not reflect the model's uncertainty about the meaning of the prompt. We model prompt sensitivity as a type of generalization error, and show that sampling across the semantic ``concept space'' with paraphrasing perturbations improves uncertainty calibration without compromising accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a new metric for uncertainty decomposition in black-box LLMs that improves upon entropy-based decomposition by modeling semantic continuities in natural language generation. We show that this decomposition metric can be used to quantify how much LLM uncertainty is attributed to prompt sensitivity. Our work introduces a new way to improve uncertainty calibration in prompt-sensitive language models, and provides evidence that some LLMs fail to exhibit consistent general reasoning about the meanings of their inputs.