# Vision-Centric 4D Occupancy Forecasting and Planning via Implicit Residual World Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.16729 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.16729/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in World models for autonomous driving, one of 11 directions in World models.
- Builds on 55 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 19 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- World models / [World models for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/wm/world-models-for-autonomous-driving/)
- End-to-end autonomous driving / [Generative simulation for driving](https://mlsanity.com/driving/generative-simulation-for-driving/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [BEVFormer: Learning Bird's-Eye-View Representation from Multi-Camera Images via Spatiotemporal Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17270/) (2022)
- [Planning-oriented Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10156/) (2022)
- [GAIA-1: A Generative World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17080/) (2023)
- [VAD: Vectorized Scene Representation for Efficient Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12077/) (2023)
- [Semantic Scene Completion from a Single Depth Image](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.08974/) (2016)
- [Cylindrical and Asymmetrical 3D Convolution Networks for LiDAR Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.10033/) (2020)
- [ST-P3: End-to-end Vision-based Autonomous Driving via Spatial-Temporal Feature Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.07601/) (2022)
- [BEVDet4D: Exploit Temporal Cues in Multi-camera 3D Object Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.17054/) (2022)
- [Occ3D: A Large-Scale 3D Occupancy Prediction Benchmark for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14365/) (2023)
- [SurroundOcc: Multi-Camera 3D Occupancy Prediction for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09551/) (2023)
- [VoxFormer: Sparse Voxel Transformer for Camera-based 3D Semantic Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12251/) (2023)
- [OccFormer: Dual-path Transformer for Vision-based 3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05316/) (2023)
- [DriveDreamer: Towards Real-world-driven World Models for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.09777/) (2023)
- [End-to-end Interpretable Neural Motion Planner](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06679/) (2021)
- [SparseDrive: End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Sparse Scene Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19620/) (2024)
- [OccWorld: Learning a 3D Occupancy World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16038/) (2023)
- [GenAD: Generative End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11502/) (2024)
- [Sparse Single Sweep LiDAR Point Cloud Segmentation via Learning Contextual Shape Priors from Scene Completion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.03762/) (2020)
- [OpenOccupancy: A Large Scale Benchmark for Surrounding Semantic Occupancy Perception](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.03991/) (2023)
- [Understanding and Improving Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.07013/) (2019)
- [Scene as Occupancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02851/) (2023)
- [Enhancing End-to-End Autonomous Driving with Latent World Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.08481/) (2024)
- [Perceive, Predict, and Plan: Safe Motion Planning Through Interpretable Semantic Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.05930/) (2020)
- [GenAD: Generalized Predictive Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09630/) (2024)
- [Copilot4D: Learning Unsupervised World Models for Autonomous Driving via Discrete Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.01017/) (2023)
- [ADriver-I: A General World Model for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.13549/) (2023)
- [FlashOcc: Fast and Memory-Efficient Occupancy Prediction via Channel-to-Height Plugin](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12058/) (2023)
- [Visual Point Cloud Forecasting enables Scalable Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17655/) (2023)
- [DriveArena: A Closed-loop Generative Simulation Platform for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.00415/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [WorldLens: Full-Spectrum Evaluations of Driving World Models in Real World](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10958/) (2025)
- [Quo Vadis, World Modeling?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.02713/) (2026)
- [Risk-Aware Occupancy for Safety-Oriented End-to-End Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.21470/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

End-to-end autonomous driving systems increasingly rely on vision-centric world models to understand and predict their environment. However, a common ineffectiveness in these models is the full reconstruction of future scenes, which expends significant capacity on redundantly modeling static backgrounds. To address this, we propose IR-WM, an Implicit Residual World Model that focuses on modeling the current state and evolution of the world. IR-WM first establishes a robust bird's-eye-view representation of the current state from the visual observation. It then leverages the BEV features from the previous timestep as a strong temporal prior and predicts only the "residual", i.e., the changes conditioned on the ego-vehicle's actions and scene context. To alleviate error accumulation over time, we further apply an alignment module to calibrate semantic and dynamic misalignments. Moreover, we investigate different forecasting-planning coupling schemes and demonstrate that the implicit future state generated by world models substantially improves planning accuracy. On the nuScenes benchmark, IR-WM achieves top performance in both 4D occupancy forecasting and trajectory planning.