# RainDiff: End-to-end Precipitation Nowcasting Via Token-wise Attention Diffusion

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.14962 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14962/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 29 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [SimVP: Simpler yet Better Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.05099/) (2022)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Earthformer: Exploring Space-Time Transformers for Earth System Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05833/) (2022)
- [Residual Corrective Diffusion Modeling for Km-scale Atmospheric Downscaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.15214/) (2023)
- [PreDiff: Precipitation Nowcasting with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10422/) (2023)
- [Anatomically-Controllable Medical Image Generation with Segmentation-Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05210/) (2024)
- [SwiftFormer: Efficient Additive Attention for Transformer-based Real-time Mobile Vision Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15446/) (2023)
- [Towards Generalizable Tumor Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19470/) (2024)
- [DiffCast: A Unified Framework via Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.06734/) (2023)
- [CasCast: Skillful High-resolution Precipitation Nowcasting via Cascaded Modelling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04290/) (2024)
- [MIMO Is All You Need : A Strong Multi-In-Multi-Out Baseline for Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.04655/) (2022)
- [Attention Augmented ConvLSTM for Environment Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.09662/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Mind the Residual Gap: Probabilistic Downscaling under Real-World Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.30821/) (2026)
- [A Free Knob: Decoupling Calibration and Predictive Skill in Threshold-Based Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.33457/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Precipitation nowcasting, predicting future radar echo sequences from current observations, is a critical yet challenging task due to the inherently chaotic and tightly coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of the atmosphere. While recent advances in diffusion-based models attempt to capture both large-scale motion and fine-grained stochastic variability, they often suffer from scalability issues: latent-space approaches require a separately trained autoencoder, adding complexity and limiting generalization, while pixel-space approaches are computationally intensive and often omit attention mechanisms, reducing their ability to model long-range spatio-temporal dependencies. To address these limitations, we propose a Token-wise Attention integrated into not only the U-Net diffusion model but also the spatio-temporal encoder that dynamically captures multi-scale spatial interactions and temporal evolution. Unlike prior approaches, our method natively integrates attention into the architecture without incurring the high resource cost typical of pixel-space diffusion, thereby eliminating the need for separate latent modules. Our extensive experiments and visual evaluations across diverse datasets demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches, yielding superior local fidelity, generalization, and robustness in complex precipitation forecasting scenarios.