# LeapFactual: Reliable Visual Counterfactual Explanation Using Conditional Flow Matching

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.14623 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.14623/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion foundations and sampling, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 46 of its 61 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion foundations and sampling](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-foundations-and-sampling/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 46)

- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Features as a Perceptual Metric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.03924/) (2018)
- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [A Style-Based Generator Architecture for Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04948/) (2018)
- [Flow Matching for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02747/) (2022)
- [Intriguing properties of neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6199/) (2013)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Auto-Encoding Variational Bayes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6114/) (2013)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07780/) (2020)
- [Alias-Free Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12423/) (2021)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Building Normalizing Flows with Stochastic Interpolants](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15571/) (2022)
- [Improving and generalizing flow-based generative models with minibatch optimal transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.00482/) (2023)
- [The Limitations of Deep Learning in Adversarial Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.07528/) (2015)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [FFJORD: Free-form Continuous Dynamics for Scalable Reversible Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.01367/) (2018)
- [Analyzing and Improving the Training Dynamics of Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02696/) (2023)
- [InterFaceGAN: Interpreting the Disentangled Face Representation Learned by GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.09635/) (2020)
- [Wasserstein Auto-Encoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.01558/) (2017)
- [Unmasking Clever Hans Predictors and Assessing What Machines Really Learn](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10178/) (2019)
- [Rectified Flow: A Marginal Preserving Approach to Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14577/) (2022)
- [Multisample Flow Matching: Straightening Flows with Minibatch Couplings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14772/) (2023)
- [Flow Matching on General Geometries](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.03660/) (2023)
- [Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06278/) (2020)
- [Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations Guided by Prototypes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02584/) (2019)
- [GANalyze: Toward Visual Definitions of Cognitive Image Properties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.10112/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Visual Disentangled Diffusion Autoencoders: Scalable Counterfactual Generation for Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21851/) (2026)
- [Counterfactual Transport Flows for Offline Conservative Trajectory Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.09115/) (2026)
- [Residual-Space Evolutionary Optimization via Flow-based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20084/) (2026)
- [Towards Fast and Disentangled Counterfactuals for Visual Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.00895/) (2026)
- [GFGE: Unifying Explainable AI Methods through an Interpretation Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.05225/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the existing explainable methods, counterfactual explanations offer interpretability by identifying minimal changes to inputs that would alter a model's prediction, thus providing deeper insights. However, current counterfactual generation methods suffer from critical limitations, including gradient vanishing, discontinuous latent spaces, and an overreliance on the alignment between learned and true decision boundaries. To overcome these limitations, we propose LeapFactual, a novel counterfactual explanation algorithm based on conditional flow matching. LeapFactual generates reliable and informative counterfactuals, even when true and learned decision boundaries diverge. Following a model-agnostic approach, LeapFactual is not limited to models with differentiable loss functions. It can even handle human-in-the-loop systems, expanding the scope of counterfactual explanations to domains that require the participation of human annotators, such as citizen science. We provide extensive experiments on benchmark and real-world datasets showing that LeapFactual generates accurate and in-distribution counterfactual explanations that offer actionable insights. We observe, for instance, that our reliable counterfactual samples with labels aligning to ground truth can be beneficially used as new training data to enhance the model. The proposed method is broadly applicable and enhances both scientific knowledge discovery and non-expert interpretability.