# Federated Conditional Conformal Prediction via Generative Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13297 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13297/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Gentle Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.07511/) (2021)
- [Distribution-Free Predictive Inference For Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.04173/) (2016)
- [Conformalized Quantile Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03222/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks -- a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06823/) (2020)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [Traffic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Framework for Network-Scale Traffic Learning and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07007/) (2018)
- [Trustworthy clinical AI solutions: a unified review of uncertainty quantification in deep learning models for medical image analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03736/) (2022)
- [Regression Conformal Prediction with Nearest Neighbours](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1401.3880/) (2014)
- [normflows: A PyTorch Package for Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.12014/) (2023)
- [Federated Conformal Predictors for Distributed Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17564/) (2023)
- [Conformal Prediction for Federated Uncertainty Quantification Under Label Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05131/) (2023)
- [One-Shot Federated Conformal Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06322/) (2023)
- [Locally Valid and Discriminative Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00225/) (2021)
- [Distribution-Free Federated Learning with Conformal Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.07661/) (2021)
- [Multi-Source Conformal Inference Under Distribution Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09331/) (2024)
- [Normalizing Flows for Conformal Regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03346/) (2024)
- [Distributed Conformal Prediction via Message Passing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.14544/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Federated Language Models Under Bandwidth Budgets: Distillation Rates and Conformal Coverage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.09986/) (2026)
- [Certified Adaptive Refresh: Anytime-Valid Monitoring for Federated Conformal RAG](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29139/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets that guarantee coverage of the true labels. This reliability makes CP valuable for high-stakes federated learning scenarios such as multi-center healthcare. However, standard CP assumes i.i.d. data, which is violated in federated settings where client distributions differ substantially. Existing federated CP methods address this by maintaining marginal coverage on each client, but such guarantees often fail to reflect input-conditional uncertainty. In this work, we propose Federated Conditional Conformal Prediction (Fed-CCP) via generative models, which aims for conditional coverage that adapts to local data heterogeneity. Fed-CCP leverages generative models, such as normalizing flows or diffusion models, to approximate conditional data distributions without requiring the sharing of raw data. This enables each client to locally calibrate conformal scores that reflect its unique uncertainty, while preserving global consistency through federated aggregation. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate that Fed-CCP achieves more adaptive prediction sets.