# ESI: Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification via Semantic-preserving Intervention for Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13103 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.13103/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 33 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [Shortcut Learning in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.07780/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [FActScore: Fine-grained Atomic Evaluation of Factual Precision in Long Form Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14251/) (2023)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [Crowdsourcing Multiple Choice Science Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06209/) (2017)
- [Siren's Song in the AI Ocean: A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01219/) (2023)
- [CoQA: A Conversational Question Answering Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.07042/) (2018)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [A Comprehensive Overview of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.06435/) (2023)
- [AmbigQA: Answering Ambiguous Open-domain Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10645/) (2020)
- [INSIDE: LLMs' Internal States Retain the Power of Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03744/) (2024)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.14983/) (2020)
- [On Hallucination and Predictive Uncertainty in Conditional Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.15025/) (2021)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Language Models with Conformal Factuality Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10978/) (2024)
- [A Survey on Uncertainty Quantification of Large Language Models: Taxonomy, Open Research Challenges, and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.05563/) (2024)
- [To Believe or Not to Believe Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02543/) (2024)
- [Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08718/) (2023)
- [Locally Typical Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.00666/) (2022)
- [Evaluating Open-Domain Question Answering in the Era of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06984/) (2023)
- [Tomayto, Tomahto. Beyond Token-level Answer Equivalence for Question Answering Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07654/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.23244/) (2026)
- [XU-RS: Explaining Credal Width in Random-Set Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.37594/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a promising approach to improve model reliability, yet quantifying the uncertainty of Large Language Models (LLMs) is non-trivial. In this work, we establish a connection between the uncertainty of LLMs and their invariance under semantic-preserving intervention from a causal perspective. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel grey-box uncertainty quantification method that measures the variation in model outputs before and after the semantic-preserving intervention. Through theoretical justification, we show that our method provides an effective estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Our extensive experiments, conducted across various LLMs and a variety of question-answering (QA) datasets, demonstrate that our method excels not only in terms of effectiveness but also in computational efficiency.