# Uncertainty Matters in Dynamic Gaussian Splatting for Monocular 4D Reconstruction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.12768 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.12768/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 49 of its 62 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 49)

- [3D Gaussian Splatting for Real-Time Radiance Field Rendering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.04079/) (2023)
- [RAFT: Recurrent All-Pairs Field Transforms for Optical Flow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12039/) (2020)
- [Objaverse: A Universe of Annotated 3D Objects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.08051/) (2022)
- [Depth Anything: Unleashing the Power of Large-Scale Unlabeled Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.10891/) (2024)
- [4D Gaussian Splatting for Real-Time Dynamic Scene Rendering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.08528/) (2023)
- [Deformable 3D Gaussians for High-Fidelity Monocular Dynamic Scene Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.13101/) (2023)
- [Dynamic 3D Gaussians: Tracking by Persistent Dynamic View Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.09713/) (2023)
- [Direct Sparse Odometry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.02565/) (2016)
- [Real-time Photorealistic Dynamic Scene Representation and Rendering with 4D Gaussian Splatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10642/) (2023)
- [SC-GS: Sparse-Controlled Gaussian Splatting for Editable Dynamic Scenes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.14937/) (2023)
- [Spacetime Gaussian Feature Splatting for Real-Time Dynamic View Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.16812/) (2023)
- [TAPIR: Tracking Any Point with per-frame Initialization and temporal Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.08637/) (2023)
- [Shape of Motion: 4D Reconstruction from a Single Video](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13764/) (2024)
- [DynIBaR: Neural Dynamic Image-Based Rendering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.11082/) (2022)
- [Gaussian-Flow: 4D Reconstruction with Dynamic 3D Gaussian Particle](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03431/) (2023)
- [Monocular Dynamic View Synthesis: A Reality Check](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.13445/) (2022)
- [Robust Dynamic Radiance Fields](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.02239/) (2023)
- [4D-Rotor Gaussian Splatting: Towards Efficient Novel View Synthesis for Dynamic Scenes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03307/) (2024)
- [InfoNeRF: Ray Entropy Minimization for Few-Shot Neural Volume Rendering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.15399/) (2021)
- [MoSca: Dynamic Gaussian Fusion from Casual Videos via 4D Motion Scaffolds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17421/) (2024)
- [Novel View Synthesis of Dynamic Scenes with Globally Coherent Depths from a Monocular Camera](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.01294/) (2020)
- [3DGStream: On-the-Fly Training of 3D Gaussians for Efficient Streaming of Photo-Realistic Free-Viewpoint Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01444/) (2024)
- [ActiveNeRF: Learning where to See with Uncertainty Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.08546/) (2022)
- [3D Geometry-aware Deformable Gaussian Splatting for Dynamic View Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06270/) (2024)
- [Motion-aware 3D Gaussian Splatting for Efficient Dynamic Scene Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11447/) (2024)
- [Diffusion4D: Fast Spatial-temporal Consistent 4D Generation via Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16645/) (2024)
- [Dynamic Gaussian Marbles for Novel View Synthesis of Casual Monocular Videos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18717/) (2024)
- [GauFRe: Gaussian Deformation Fields for Real-time Dynamic Novel View Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11458/) (2023)
- [Stochastic Neural Radiance Fields: Quantifying Uncertainty in Implicit 3D Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.02123/) (2021)
- [Conditional-Flow NeRF: Accurate 3D Modelling with Reliable Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10192/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [RiGS: Rigid-aware 4D Gaussian Splatting from a Single Monocular Video](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.23672/) (2026)
- [Unified Panoramic-Gaussian Representation for Monocular 4D Scene Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.01663/) (2026)
- [FillGS: Filling Observation Gaps in 4D Gaussian Splatting via Viewpoint-Time Selection and Generative Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.29284/) (2026)
- [PASTEL: Panoramic Alignment for Monocular 4D Scene Reconstruction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.06099/) (2026)
- [View-Structured Conformal Prediction for 3D Gaussian Splatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.10307/) (2026)
- [PUGS: Physics-Guided Uncertainty Modeling for Underwater Dynamic 3D Gaussian Splatting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2610.17936/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reconstructing dynamic 3D scenes from monocular input is fundamentally under-constrained, with ambiguities arising from occlusion and extreme novel views. While dynamic Gaussian Splatting offers an efficient representation, vanilla models optimize all Gaussian primitives uniformly, ignoring whether they are well or poorly observed. This limitation leads to motion drifts under occlusion and degraded synthesis when extrapolating to unseen views. We argue that uncertainty matters: Gaussians with recurring observations across views and time act as reliable anchors to guide motion, whereas those with limited visibility are treated as less reliable. To this end, we introduce USplat4D, a novel Uncertainty-aware dynamic Gaussian Splatting framework that propagates reliable motion cues to enhance 4D reconstruction. Our approach estimates time-varying per-Gaussian uncertainty and leverages it to construct a spatio-temporal graph for uncertainty-aware optimization. Experiments on diverse real and synthetic datasets show that explicitly modeling uncertainty consistently improves dynamic Gaussian Splatting models, yielding more stable geometry under occlusion and high-quality synthesis at extreme viewpoints.