# Uncertainty Quantification for Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11483 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11483/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 55 of its 89 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/knowledge-and-tool-augmented-reasoning/)
- Retrieval-augmented generation / [RAG robustness and adaptive retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/rag/rag-robustness-and-adaptive-retrieval/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Dense Passage Retrieval for Open-Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04906/) (2020)
- [HotpotQA: A Dataset for Diverse, Explainable Multi-hop Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.09600/) (2018)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Self-RAG: Learning to Retrieve, Generate, and Critique through Self-Reflection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11511/) (2023)
- [When Not to Trust Language Models: Investigating Effectiveness of Parametric and Non-Parametric Memories](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10511/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are not Fair Evaluators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.17926/) (2023)
- [Measuring and Narrowing the Compositionality Gap in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.03350/) (2022)
- [Interleaving Retrieval with Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Knowledge-Intensive Multi-Step Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10509/) (2022)
- [MuSiQue: Multihop Questions via Single-hop Question Composition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.00573/) (2021)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [LLM-Blender: Ensembling Large Language Models with Pairwise Ranking and Generative Fusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.02561/) (2023)
- [Active Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06983/) (2023)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [The Power of Noise: Redefining Retrieval for RAG Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.14887/) (2024)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection and Selective Generation for Conditional Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15558/) (2022)
- [Don't Hallucinate, Abstain: Identifying LLM Knowledge Gaps via Multi-LLM Collaboration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.00367/) (2024)
- [Fact-Checking the Output of Large Language Models via Token-Level Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04696/) (2024)
- [Shifting Attention to Relevance: Towards the Predictive Uncertainty Quantification of Free-Form Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01379/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12794/) (2024)
- [Decomposing Uncertainty for Large Language Models through Input Clarification Ensembling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.08718/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty Quantification and Confidence Calibration in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.15850/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Retrieval Quality in Retrieval-Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.13781/) (2024)
- [Harnessing Multiple Large Language Models: A Survey on LLM Ensemble](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18036/) (2025)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [ConU: Conformal Uncertainty in Large Language Models with Correctness Coverage Guarantees](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.00499/) (2024)
- [DRAGIN: Dynamic Retrieval Augmented Generation based on the Information Needs of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.10081/) (2024)
- [Fine Tuning vs. Retrieval Augmented Generation for Less Popular Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01432/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [NOVA: NOise-aware Verbal Confidence CAlibration for Robust Large Language Models in RAG Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.11004/) (2026)
- [When Deep Research Agents Stagnate: Enhancing Reasoning with Retrieval-Aware Agent Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.15191/) (2026)
- [Learning to Reason for Multi-Step Retrieval of Personal Context in Personalized Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.19317/) (2026)
- [When Confidence Takes the Wrong Path: Diagnosing Retrieval-State Lock-In in RAG](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.22728/) (2026)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Multimodal Retrieval Augmented Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.29956/) (2026)
- [Evaluating RAG Reliability under Clean, Misleading, and Mixed Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.07783/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Retrieval-augmented reasoning (RAR) is a recent evolution of retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) that employs multiple reasoning steps for retrieval and generation. While effective for some complex queries, RAR remains vulnerable to errors and misleading outputs. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) offers methods to estimate the confidence of systems' outputs. These methods, however, often handle simple queries with no retrieval or single-step retrieval, without properly handling RAR setup. Accurate estimation of UQ for RAR requires accounting for all sources of uncertainty, including those arising from retrieval and generation. In this paper, we account for all these sources and introduce Retrieval-Augmented Reasoning Consistency (R2C)--a novel UQ method for RAR. The core idea of R2C is to perturb the multi-step reasoning process by applying various actions to reasoning steps. These perturbations alter the retriever's input, which shifts its output and consequently modifies the generator's input at the next step. Through this iterative feedback loop, the retriever and generator continuously reshape one another's inputs, enabling us to capture uncertainty arising from both components. Experiments on five popular RAR systems across diverse QA datasets show that R2C improves AUROC by over 5% on average compared to the state-of-the-art UQ baselines. Extrinsic evaluations using R2C as an external signal further confirm its effectiveness for two downstream tasks: in Abstention, it achieves ~5% gains in both F1Abstain and AccAbstain; in Model Selection, it improves the exact match by ~7% over single models and ~3% over selection methods.