# A Comprehensive Forecasting-Based Framework for Time Series Anomaly Detection: Benchmarking on the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark (NAB)

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.11141 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.11141/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 37 of its 63 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 13 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Deep Compression: Compressing Deep Neural Networks with Pruning, Trained Quantization and Huffman Coding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.00149/) (2015)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [Chronos: Learning the Language of Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07815/) (2024)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [Detecting Spacecraft Anomalies Using LSTMs and Nonparametric Dynamic Thresholding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04431/) (2018)
- [Anomaly Transformer: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Association Discrepancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.02642/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning for Anomaly Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.03407/) (2019)
- [Graph Neural Network-Based Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06947/) (2021)
- [TranAD: Deep Transformer Networks for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07284/) (2022)
- [A review on outlier/anomaly detection in time series data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04236/) (2020)
- [Multivariate Time-series Anomaly Detection via Graph Attention Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.02040/) (2020)
- [A Survey on Graph Neural Networks for Time Series: Forecasting, Classification, Imputation, and Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.03759/) (2023)
- [Deep Learning for Medical Anomaly Detection -- A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.02364/) (2020)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)
- [Learning Graph Structures with Transformer for Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection in IoT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.03466/) (2021)
- [DCdetector: Dual Attention Contrastive Representation Learning for Time Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.10347/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Deep Learning Interpretability in Time Series Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13924/) (2020)
- [Evaluating Real-time Anomaly Detection Algorithms - the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.03336/) (2015)
- [Precision and Recall for Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.03639/) (2018)
- [Towards a Rigorous Evaluation of XAI Methods on Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.07082/) (2019)
- [Log-based Anomaly Detection Without Log Parsing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.01955/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Time series anomaly detection is critical for modern digital infrastructures, yet existing methods lack systematic cross-domain evaluation. We present a comprehensive forecasting-based framework unifying classical methods (Holt-Winters, SARIMA) with deep learning architectures (LSTM, Informer) under a common residual-based detection interface. Our modular pipeline integrates preprocessing (normalization, STL decomposition), four forecasting models, four detection methods, and dual evaluation through forecasting metrics (MAE, RMSE, PCC) and detection metrics (Precision, Recall, F1, AUC). We conduct the first complete evaluation on the Numenta Anomaly Benchmark (58 datasets, 7 categories) with 232 model training runs and 464 detection evaluations achieving 100% success rate. LSTM achieves best performance (F1: 0.688, ranking first or second on 81% of datasets) with exceptional correlation on complex patterns (PCC: 0.999). Informer provides competitive accuracy (F1: 0.683) with 30% faster training. Classical methods achieve perfect predictions on simple synthetic data with 60 lower cost but show 2-3 worse F1-scores on real-world datasets. Forecasting quality dominates detection performance: differences between detection methods (F1: 0.621-0.688) are smaller than between forecasting models (F1: 0.344-0.688). Our findings provide evidence-based guidance: use LSTM for complex patterns, Informer for efficiency-critical deployments, and classical methods for simple periodic data with resource constraints. The complete implementation and results establish baselines for future forecasting-based anomaly detection research.