# Mitigating Model Drift in Developing Economies Using Synthetic Data and Outliers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09294 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09294/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 33 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Revisiting Deep Learning Models for Tabular Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.11959/) (2021)
- [TabNet: Attentive Interpretable Tabular Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07442/) (2019)
- [NGBoost: Natural Gradient Boosting for Probabilistic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03225/) (2019)
- [Adversarial Concept Drift Detection under Poisoning Attacks for Robust Data Stream Mining](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09497/) (2020)
- [On Deterministically Approximating Total Variation Distance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14696/) (2023)
- [SMOClust: Synthetic Minority Oversampling based on Stream Clustering for Evolving Data Streams](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.14845/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Machine Learning models in finance are highly susceptible to model drift, where predictive performance declines as data distributions shift. This issue is especially acute in developing economies such as those in Central Asia and the Caucasus - including Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan - where frequent and unpredictable macroeconomics shocks destabilize financial data. To the best of our knowledge, this is among the first studies to examine drift mitigation methods on financial datasets from these regions. We investigate the use of synthetic outliers, a largely unexplored approach, to improve model stability against unforeseen shocks. To evaluate effectiveness, we introduce a two-level framework that measures both the extent of performance degradation and the severity of shocks. Our experiments on macroeconomic tabular datasets show that adding a small proportion of synthetic outliers generally improves stability compared to baseline models, though the optimal amount varies by dataset and model