# On the Provable Performance Guarantee of Efficient Reasoning Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.09133 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.09133/

## Key facts

- Cited by 6 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 54 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 54)

- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Think you have Solved Question Answering? Try ARC, the AI2 Reasoning Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05457/) (2018)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01068/) (2022)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [GPQA: A Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q&A Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.12022/) (2023)
- [CommonsenseQA: A Question Answering Challenge Targeting Commonsense Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.00937/) (2018)
- [SGLang: Efficient Execution of Structured Language Model Programs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.07104/) (2023)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [Reasoning with Language Model is Planning with World Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14992/) (2023)
- [Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14975/) (2023)
- [RouteLLM: Learning to Route LLMs with Preference Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.18665/) (2024)
- [Recipes for building an open-domain chatbot](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13637/) (2020)
- [From Crowdsourced Data to High-Quality Benchmarks: Arena-Hard and BenchBuilder Pipeline](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11939/) (2024)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [The Lessons of Developing Process Reward Models in Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.07301/) (2025)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [Conformal Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.02814/) (2022)
- [Chain of Draft: Thinking Faster by Writing Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18600/) (2025)
- [Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02703/) (2021)
- [Learn then Test: Calibrating Predictive Algorithms to Achieve Risk Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01052/) (2021)
- [Dynamic Early Exit in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.15895/) (2025)
- [ZebraLogic: On the Scaling Limits of LLMs for Logical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01100/) (2025)
- [Reasoning Models Can Be Effective Without Thinking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.09858/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [Conformal Thinking: Risk Control for Reasoning on a Compute Budget](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03814/) (2026)
- [A note on conditional PAC-efficient reasoning in large language model routing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.03057/) (2025)
- [Anytime Safe PAC Efficient Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.22446/) (2026)
- [Conditional Performance Guarantee for Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.22790/) (2026)
- [The Exceedance Design Effect: Effective Sample Size for Thresholds under Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.21262/) (2026)
- [On the Pitfalls of Verbalized Confidence Priors for Calibrating Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32470/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have achieved remarkable progress in complex problem-solving tasks. Despite this success, LRMs typically suffer from high computational costs during deployment, highlighting a need for efficient inference. A practical direction of efficiency improvement is to switch the LRM between thinking and non-thinking modes dynamically. However, such approaches often introduce additional reasoning errors and lack statistical guarantees for the performance loss, which are critical for high-stakes applications. In this work, we propose Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) reasoning that controls the performance loss under the user-specified tolerance. Specifically, we construct an upper confidence bound on the performance loss and determine a threshold for switching to the non-thinking model. Theoretically, using the threshold to switch between the thinking and non-thinking modes ensures bounded performance loss in a distribution-free manner. Our comprehensive experiments on reasoning benchmarks show that the proposed method can save computational budgets and control the user-specified performance loss.