# MATT-CTR: Unleashing a Model-Agnostic Test-Time Paradigm for CTR Prediction with Confidence-Guided Inference Paths

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08932 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08932/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 42 of its 66 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 42)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [Wide & Deep Learning for Recommender Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.07792/) (2016)
- [DeepFM: A Factorization-Machine based Neural Network for CTR Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04247/) (2017)
- [Recommendation as Language Processing (RLP): A Unified Pretrain, Personalized Prompt & Predict Paradigm (P5)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13366/) (2022)
- [Deep Interest Evolution Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.03672/) (2018)
- [DCN V2: Improved Deep & Cross Network and Practical Lessons for Web-scale Learning to Rank Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.13535/) (2020)
- [AutoInt: Automatic Feature Interaction Learning via Self-Attentive Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11921/) (2018)
- [xDeepFM: Combining Explicit and Implicit Feature Interactions for Recommender Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05170/) (2018)
- [Recommender Systems with Generative Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.05065/) (2023)
- [Adapting Large Language Models by Integrating Collaborative Semantics for Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09049/) (2023)
- [Search-based User Interest Modeling with Lifelong Sequential Behavior Data for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05639/) (2020)
- [OneRec: Unifying Retrieve and Rank with Generative Recommender and Iterative Preference Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18965/) (2025)
- [AlphaMath Almost Zero: Process Supervision without Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03553/) (2024)
- [Toward Self-Improvement of LLMs via Imagination, Searching, and Criticizing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.12253/) (2024)
- [Contrastive Learning for Representation Degeneration Problem in Sequential Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.05730/) (2021)
- [Empowering Things with Intelligence: A Survey of the Progress, Challenges, and Opportunities in Artificial Intelligence of Things](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.08612/) (2020)
- [Learnable Item Tokenization for Generative Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.07314/) (2024)
- [How to Index Item IDs for Recommendation Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.06569/) (2023)
- [Adversarial Multi-task Learning for Text Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.05742/) (2017)
- [FiBiNET: Combining Feature Importance and Bilinear feature Interaction for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.09433/) (2019)
- [PEPNet: Parameter and Embedding Personalized Network for Infusing with Personalized Prior Information](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.01115/) (2023)
- [Field-weighted Factorization Machines for Click-Through Rate Prediction in Display Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03514/) (2018)
- [IDGenRec: LLM-RecSys Alignment with Textual ID Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.19021/) (2024)
- [MTGR: Industrial-Scale Generative Recommendation Framework in Meituan](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18654/) (2025)
- [MaskNet: Introducing Feature-Wise Multiplication to CTR Ranking Models by Instance-Guided Mask](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.07619/) (2021)
- [RankMixer: Scaling Up Ranking Models in Industrial Recommenders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.15551/) (2025)
- [Learning Hidden Unit Contributions for Unsupervised Acoustic Model Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.02828/) (2016)
- [Towards Automated Neural Interaction Discovery for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06434/) (2020)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Recently, a growing body of research has focused on either optimizing CTR model architectures to better model feature interactions or refining training objectives to aid parameter learning, thereby achieving better predictive performance. However, previous efforts have primarily focused on the training phase, largely neglecting opportunities for optimization during the inference phase. Infrequently occurring feature combinations, in particular, can degrade prediction performance, leading to unreliable or low-confidence outputs. To unlock the predictive potential of trained CTR models, we propose a Model-Agnostic Test-Time paradigm (MATT), which leverages the confidence scores of feature combinations to guide the generation of multiple inference paths, thereby mitigating the influence of low-confidence features on the final prediction. Specifically, to quantify the confidence of feature combinations, we introduce a hierarchical probabilistic hashing method to estimate the occurrence frequencies of feature combinations at various orders, which serve as their corresponding confidence scores. Then, using the confidence scores as sampling probabilities, we generate multiple instance-specific inference paths through iterative sampling and subsequently aggregate the prediction scores from multiple paths to conduct robust predictions. Finally, extensive offline experiments and online A/B tests strongly validate the compatibility and effectiveness of MATT across existing CTR models.