# Simple and Robust Forecasting of Spatiotemporally Correlated Small Earth Data with A Tabular Foundation Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08920 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08920/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [A Simple Framework for Contrastive Learning of Visual Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05709/) (2020)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Skillful Precipitation Nowcasting using Deep Generative Models of Radar](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00954/) (2021)
- [Neural General Circulation Models for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07222/) (2023)
- [Climate-Invariant Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.08440/) (2021)
- [Scalable Spatiotemporal Prediction with Bayesian Neural Fields](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.07657/) (2024)
- [Landslide Topology Uncovers Failure Movements](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.09631/) (2023)
- [Exploring Geometric Deep Learning For Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.05828/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [TabPFN-3: Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.13986/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Small Earth data are geoscience observations with limited short-term monitoring variability, providing sparse but meaningful measurements, typically exhibiting spatiotemporal correlations. Spatiotemporal forecasting on such data is crucial for understanding geoscientific processes despite their small scale. However, conventional deep learning models for spatiotemporal forecasting requires task-specific training for different scenarios. Foundation models do not need task-specific training, but they often exhibit forecasting bias toward the global mean of the pretraining distribution. Here we propose a simple and robust approach for spatiotemporally correlated small Earth data forecasting. The essential idea is to characterize and quantify spatiotemporal patterns of small Earth data and then utilize tabular foundation models for accurate forecasting across different scenarios. Comparative results across three typical scenarios demonstrate that our forecasting approach achieves superior accuracy compared to the graph deep learning model (T-GCN) and tabular foundation model (TabPFN) in the majority of instances, exhibiting stronger robustness.