# Spatial Deconfounder: Interference-Aware Deconfounding for Spatial Causal Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08762 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08762/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 48 of its 77 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 48)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Large Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02216/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [Attention U-Net: Learning Where to Look for the Pancreas](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.03999/) (2018)
- [Variational Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00630/) (2021)
- [Tune: A Research Platform for Distributed Model Selection and Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.05118/) (2018)
- [AutoGluon-Tabular: Robust and Accurate AutoML for Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.06505/) (2020)
- [Adapting Neural Networks for the Estimation of Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02120/) (2019)
- [CausalGAN: Learning Causal Implicit Generative Models with Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.02023/) (2017)
- [The Blessings of Multiple Causes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06826/) (2018)
- [Causal Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.02268/) (2020)
- [The Causal-Neural Connection: Expressiveness, Learnability, and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00793/) (2021)
- [Diffusion Causal Models for Counterfactual Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10166/) (2022)
- [Time Series Deconfounder: Estimating Treatment Effects over Time in the Presence of Hidden Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.00450/) (2019)
- [Auxiliary Deep Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05473/) (2016)
- [Identifiable Deep Generative Models via Sparse Decoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.10804/) (2021)
- [Causal normalizing flows: from theory to practice](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05415/) (2023)
- [Identification and estimation of treatment and interference effects in observational studies on networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.06245/) (2016)
- [Doubly-Valid/Doubly-Sharp Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference with Unmeasured Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11449/) (2021)
- [Embrace the Gap: VAEs Perform Independent Mechanism Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.02416/) (2022)
- [B-Learner: Quasi-Oracle Bounds on Heterogeneous Causal Effects Under Hidden Confounding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.10577/) (2023)
- [Sequential Deconfounding for Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09323/) (2021)
- [Sharp Bounds for Generalized Causal Sensitivity Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16988/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Causal Inference on Networks under Misspecified Exposure Mappings: A Partial Identification Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03459/) (2026)
- [Shrinkage priors for Bayesian Substitute Confounders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18535/) (2026)
- [Spatiotemporal Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding and Interference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.01352/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Causal inference in spatial domains faces two intertwined challenges: (1) unmeasured spatial factors, such as weather, air pollution, or mobility, that confound treatment and outcome, and (2) interference from nearby treatments that violate standard no-interference assumptions. While existing methods typically address one by assuming away the other, we show they are deeply connected: interference reveals structure in the latent confounder. Leveraging this insight, we propose the Spatial Deconfounder, a two-stage method that reconstructs a substitute confounder from local treatment vectors using a conditional variational autoencoder (C-VAE) with a spatial prior, then estimates causal effects with a flexible outcome model. We show that this enables nonparametric identification of direct and spillover effects under weak assumptions--without multiple treatment types or a known latent-field model. Empirically, we extend SpaCE, a benchmark suite for spatial confounding, to include treatment interference, and show that the Spatial Deconfounder consistently improves effect estimation across real-world environmental health and social science datasets. By turning local interference into a multi-cause proxy for latent spatial confounding, our framework advances robust causal inference for spatial data.