# Don't Waste Mistakes: Leveraging Negative RL-Groups via Confidence Reweighting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08696 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08696/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reinforcement learning for reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 35 of its 40 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reinforcement learning for reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reinforcement-learning-for-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [Proximal Policy Optimization Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.06347/) (2017)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [DAPO: An Open-Source LLM Reinforcement Learning System at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14476/) (2025)
- [HybridFlow: A Flexible and Efficient RLHF Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19256/) (2024)
- [Understanding R1-Zero-Like Training: A Critical Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.20783/) (2025)
- [Kimi k1.5: Scaling Reinforcement Learning with LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12599/) (2025)
- [Exploration by Random Network Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.12894/) (2018)
- [Reasoning with Exploration: An Entropy Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.14758/) (2025)
- [Learning to Reason without External Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.19590/) (2025)
- [The Surprising Effectiveness of Negative Reinforcement in LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01347/) (2025)
- [Pass@k Training for Adaptively Balancing Exploration and Exploitation of Large Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.10751/) (2025)
- [Exploratory Preference Optimization: Harnessing Implicit Q*-Approximation for Sample-Efficient RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21046/) (2024)
- [Maximizing Confidence Alone Improves Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22660/) (2025)
- [RLPR: Extrapolating RLVR to General Domains without Verifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.18254/) (2025)
- [Reinforcing General Reasoning without Verifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.21493/) (2025)
- [Value-Incentivized Preference Optimization: A Unified Approach to Online and Offline RLHF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19320/) (2024)
- [Self-Exploring Language Models: Active Preference Elicitation for Online Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.19332/) (2024)
- [Confidence Is All You Need: Few-Shot RL Fine-Tuning of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06395/) (2025)
- [Tapered Off-Policy REINFORCE: Stable and efficient reinforcement learning for LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.14286/) (2025)
- [Optimizing Language Models for Inference Time Objectives using Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.19595/) (2025)
- [Exploring the Limit of Outcome Reward for Learning Mathematical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06781/) (2025)
- [No Prompt Left Behind: Exploiting Zero-Variance Prompts in LLM Reinforcement Learning via Entropy-Guided Advantage Shaping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.21880/) (2025)
- [First Return, Entropy-Eliciting Explore](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.07017/) (2025)
- [Navigate the Unknown: Enhancing LLM Reasoning with Intrinsic Motivation Guided Exploration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17621/) (2025)
- [NGRPO: Negative-enhanced Group Relative Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.18851/) (2025)
- [Asymmetric REINFORCE for off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Balancing positive and negative rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20520/) (2025)
- [Single-stream Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.13232/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [What If Consensus Lies? Selective-Complementary Reinforcement Learning at Test Time](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.19880/) (2026)
- [Distill Where You Fail: Recovering Learning Signals of Negative RL-Groups from Adaptive Teacher Guidance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.00782/) (2026)
- [Blockwise Advantage Estimation for Multi-Objective RL with Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.10231/) (2026)
- [Asymmetric Prompt Weighting for Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.11128/) (2026)
- [Zone of Proximal Policy Optimization: Teacher in Prompts, Not Gradients](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.18216/) (2026)
- [Beyond Variance: Prompt-Efficient RLVR via Rare-Event Amplification and Bidirectional Pairing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03452/) (2026)
- [Themis: Training Robust Multilingual Code Reward Models for Flexible Multi-Criteria Scoring](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00754/) (2026)
- [It Takes 8 Tokens: Weak-to-Strong Off-Policy RL via Auxiliary Branches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.16205/) (2026)
- [OGER: A Robust Offline-Guided Exploration Reward for Hybrid Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.18530/) (2026)
- [LoRA Scaffolded Policy Optimization (LSPO): A Sampling-Time Low-Rank Scaffold for Recovering Reinforcement-Learning Gradient on Zero-Reward Cliff Prompts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.27787/) (2026)
- [Spurious Advantage Hidden in GRPO](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04063/) (2026)
- [Video-HopChain: Multi-Hop Questions and Confidence-Gated Exploration for Video Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.25773/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as Likelihood Estimation with Negative Samples (LENS). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.