# Towards Reliable LLM-based Robot Planning via Combined Uncertainty Estimation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08044 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.08044/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Spatial and embodied reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 37 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Spatial and embodied reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/spatial-and-embodied-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 37)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Reflexion: Language Agents with Verbal Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.11366/) (2023)
- [Self-Refine: Iterative Refinement with Self-Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17651/) (2023)
- [TruthfulQA: Measuring How Models Mimic Human Falsehoods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.07958/) (2021)
- [Do As I Can, Not As I Say: Grounding Language in Robotic Affordances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01691/) (2022)
- [Survey of Hallucination in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03629/) (2022)
- [A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models: Principles, Taxonomy, Challenges, and Open Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.05232/) (2023)
- [Calibrate Before Use: Improving Few-Shot Performance of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09690/) (2021)
- [Code as Policies: Language Model Programs for Embodied Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07753/) (2022)
- [Inner Monologue: Embodied Reasoning through Planning with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05608/) (2022)
- [Language Models as Zero-Shot Planners: Extracting Actionable Knowledge for Embodied Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07207/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [NExT-GPT: Any-to-Any Multimodal LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.05519/) (2023)
- [ProgPrompt: Generating Situated Robot Task Plans using Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.11302/) (2022)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Robots That Ask For Help: Uncertainty Alignment for Large Language Model Planners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01928/) (2023)
- [Do Large Language Models Know What They Don't Know?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18153/) (2023)
- [Unsupervised Quality Estimation for Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.10608/) (2020)
- [REFINER: Reasoning Feedback on Intermediate Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01904/) (2023)
- [Analyzing Uncertainty in Neural Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.00047/) (2018)
- [Leave No Document Behind: Benchmarking Long-Context LLMs with Extended Multi-Doc QA](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.17419/) (2024)
- [RoboMamba: Efficient Vision-Language-Action Model for Robotic Reasoning and Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04339/) (2024)
- [RL on Incorrect Synthetic Data Scales the Efficiency of LLM Math Reasoning by Eight-Fold](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14532/) (2024)
- [HaloScope: Harnessing Unlabeled LLM Generations for Hallucination Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17504/) (2024)
- [MLLM can see? Dynamic Correction Decoding for Hallucination Mitigation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.11779/) (2024)
- [Optimus-1: Hybrid Multimodal Memory Empowered Agents Excel in Long-Horizon Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03615/) (2024)
- [Can Large Language Models Reason and Plan?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.04121/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation: From Theory to Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15703/) (2023)
- [VLAS: Vision-Language-Action Model With Speech Instructions For Customized Robot Manipulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.13508/) (2025)
- [Can Large Language Models be Good Path Planners? A Benchmark and Investigation on Spatial-temporal Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03249/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [AI Alignment Breaks at the Edge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.20042/) (2026)
- [Embodied Interpretability: Linking Causal Understanding to Generalization in Vision-Language-Action Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00321/) (2026)
- [PSG-Nav: Probabilistic Scene Graph Navigation via Multiverse Decision Making](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.01313/) (2026)
- [Safe Task Planning with Long-Term Graph Memory for Embodied Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08444/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning abilities, enabling robots to understand natural language instructions and generate high-level plans with appropriate grounding. However, LLM hallucinations present a significant challenge, often leading to overconfident yet potentially misaligned or unsafe plans. While researchers have explored uncertainty estimation to improve the reliability of LLM-based planning, existing studies have not sufficiently differentiated between epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, limiting the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we present Combined Uncertainty estimation for Reliable Embodied planning (CURE), which decomposes the uncertainty into epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, each estimated separately. Furthermore, epistemic uncertainty is subdivided into task clarity and task familiarity for more accurate evaluation. The overall uncertainty assessments are obtained using random network distillation and multi-layer perceptron regression heads driven by LLM features. We validated our approach in two distinct experimental settings: kitchen manipulation and tabletop rearrangement experiments. The results show that, compared to existing methods, our approach yields uncertainty estimates that are more closely aligned with the actual execution outcomes.