# Do LLMs Really Need 10+ Thoughts for "Find the Time 1000 Days Later"? Towards Structural Understanding of LLM Overthinking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.07880 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.07880/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 33 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 33)

- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [DeepSeek-R1: Incentivizing Reasoning Capability in LLMs via Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12948/) (2025)
- [Qwen2.5 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.15115/) (2024)
- [Gemini 2.5: Pushing the Frontier with Advanced Reasoning, Multimodality, Long Context, and Next Generation Agentic Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.06261/) (2025)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [OpenAI o1 System Card](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.16720/) (2024)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [Stop Overthinking: A Survey on Efficient Reasoning for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.16419/) (2025)
- [L1: Controlling How Long A Reasoning Model Thinks With Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.04697/) (2025)
- [Towards Reasoning Era: A Survey of Long Chain-of-Thought for Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09567/) (2025)
- [Cognitive Behaviors that Enable Self-Improving Reasoners, or, Four Habits of Highly Effective STaRs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01307/) (2025)
- [Measuring short-form factuality in large language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.04368/) (2024)
- [From System 1 to System 2: A Survey of Reasoning Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.17419/) (2025)
- [The Illusion of Thinking: Understanding the Strengths and Limitations of Reasoning Models via the Lens of Problem Complexity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06941/) (2025)
- [Chain of Draft: Thinking Faster by Writing Less](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18600/) (2025)
- [Towards Large Reasoning Models: A Survey of Reinforced Reasoning with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.09686/) (2025)
- [Training Language Models to Reason Efficiently](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04463/) (2025)
- [From Explicit CoT to Implicit CoT: Learning to Internalize CoT Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14838/) (2024)
- [ZebraLogic: On the Scaling Limits of LLMs for Logical Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01100/) (2025)
- [Thinkless: LLM Learns When to Think](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.13379/) (2025)
- [Mind Your Step (by Step): Chain-of-Thought can Reduce Performance on Tasks where Thinking Makes Humans Worse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.21333/) (2024)
- [Don't Overthink it. Preferring Shorter Thinking Chains for Improved LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17813/) (2025)
- [Can Language Models Solve Olympiad Programming?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.10952/) (2024)
- [THOUGHTTERMINATOR: Benchmarking, Calibrating, and Mitigating Overthinking in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13367/) (2025)
- [OptimalThinkingBench: Evaluating Over and Underthinking in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.13141/) (2025)
- [Large language models for artificial general intelligence (AGI): A survey of foundational principles and approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03151/) (2025)
- [PRIME: Large Language Model Personalization with Cognitive Dual-Memory and Personalized Thought Process](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04607/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [When More Thinking Hurts: Overthinking in LLM Test-Time Compute Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.10739/) (2026)
- [Reward Modeling for Reinforcement Learning-Based LLM Reasoning: Design, Challenges, and Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.09305/) (2026)
- [Learning Adaptive Reasoning Paths for Efficient Visual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.14568/) (2026)
- [Better Starts, Better Ends: Bootstrapped Iterative Self-Reasoning Distillation for Compressed Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.15736/) (2026)
- [CLORE: Content-Level Optimization for Reasoning Efficiency](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.22211/) (2026)
- [ReSum: Synergizing LLM Reasoning and Summarization with Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.13316/) (2026)
- [ThinkProbe: Beyond Accuracy -- Structural Profiling of Open-Ended LLM Reasoning Traces via Non-Generative Thought Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29067/) (2026)
- [SHAPE of Chain-of-Thought in Math Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.28600/) (2026)
- [Legibility is Not Interpretability: Comparing Judged and Actual Importance in Chain-Of-Thought Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04194/) (2026)
- [MetaCtrl: Your Large Language Models Can Reason Better and More Concisely with a Metacognitive Controller](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.37304/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Models employing long chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning have shown superior performance on complex reasoning tasks. Yet, this capability introduces a critical and often overlooked inefficiency -- overthinking -- models often engage in unnecessarily extensive reasoning even for simple queries, incurring significant computations without accuracy improvements. While prior work has explored solutions to mitigate overthinking, a fundamental gap remains in our understanding of its underlying causes. Most existing analyses are limited to superficial, profiling-based observations, failing to delve into LLMs' inner workings. This study introduces a systematic, fine-grained analyzer of LLMs' thought process to bridge the gap, TRACE. We first benchmark the overthinking issue, confirming that long-thinking models are five to twenty times slower on simple tasks with no substantial gains. We then use TRACE to first decompose the thought process into minimally complete sub-thoughts. Next, by inferring discourse relationships among sub-thoughts, we construct granular thought progression graphs and subsequently identify common thinking patterns for topically similar queries. Our analysis reveals two major patterns for open-weight thinking models -- Explorer and Late Landing. This finding provides evidence that over-verification and over-exploration are the primary drivers of overthinking in LLMs. Grounded in thought structures, we propose a utility-based definition of overthinking, which moves beyond length-based metrics. This revised definition offers a more insightful understanding of LLMs' thought progression, as well as practical guidelines for principled overthinking management.