# Revisiting Node Affinity Prediction in Temporal Graphs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.06940 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.06940/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [How Powerful are Graph Neural Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00826/) (2018)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Neural Message Passing for Quantum Chemistry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.01212/) (2017)
- [Efficiently Modeling Long Sequences with Structured State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.00396/) (2021)
- [Combining Recurrent, Convolutional, and Continuous-time Models with Linear State-Space Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.13985/) (2021)
- [Temporal Graph Networks for Deep Learning on Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10637/) (2020)
- [Inductive Representation Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.07962/) (2020)
- [Predicting Dynamic Embedding Trajectory in Temporal Interaction Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.01207/) (2019)
- [Representation Learning for Dynamic Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11485/) (2019)
- [Inductive Representation Learning in Temporal Networks via Causal Anonymous Walks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.05974/) (2021)
- [Towards Better Dynamic Graph Learning: New Architecture and Unified Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.13047/) (2023)
- [Do We Really Need Complicated Model Architectures For Temporal Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.11636/) (2023)
- [Temporal Graph Benchmark for Machine Learning on Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.01026/) (2023)
- [TCL: Transformer-based Dynamic Graph Modelling via Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.07944/) (2021)
- [Provably expressive temporal graph networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15059/) (2022)
- [Neighborhood-aware Scalable Temporal Network Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.01084/) (2022)
- [GCN-GAN: A Non-linear Temporal Link Prediction Model for Weighted Dynamic Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1901.09165/) (2019)
- [Long Range Propagation on Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02740/) (2024)
- [Improving Temporal Link Prediction via Temporal Walk Matrix Projection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04013/) (2024)
- [DyGMamba: Efficiently Modeling Long-Term Temporal Dependency on Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs with State Space Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04713/) (2024)
- [On the Power of Heuristics in Temporal Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.04910/) (2025)
- [Message-Passing State-Space Models: Improving Graph Learning with Modern Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.18728/) (2025)
- [Enhancing the Expressivity of Temporal Graph Networks through Source-Target Identification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.03596/) (2024)
- [Understanding and Improving Laplacian Positional Encodings For Temporal GNNs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01596/) (2025)
- [Leveraging Temporal Graph Networks Using Module Decoupling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02721/) (2023)
- [Expressivity of Representation Learning on Continuous-Time Dynamic Graphs: An Information-Flow Centric Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.03783/) (2024)
- [GRAMA: Adaptive Graph Autoregressive Moving Average Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.12732/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Institutional Equity Holdings Prediction Using Node Affinities of Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.12067/) (2026)
- [A Critical Audit of Spatiotemporal Forecasting Benchmark Datasets and Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20980/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Node affinity prediction is a common task that is widely used in temporal graph learning with applications in social and financial networks, recommender systems, and more. Recent works have addressed this task by adapting state-of-the-art dynamic link property prediction models to node affinity prediction. However, simple heuristics, such as Persistent Forecast or Moving Average, outperform these models. In this work, we analyze the challenges in training current Temporal Graph Neural Networks for node affinity prediction and suggest appropriate solutions. Combining the solutions, we develop NAViS - Node Affinity prediction model using Virtual State, by exploiting the equivalence between heuristics and state space models. While promising, training NAViS is non-trivial. Therefore, we further introduce a novel loss function for node affinity prediction. We evaluate NAViS on TGB and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art, including heuristics. Our source code is available at https://github.com/orfeld415/NAVIS