# On Predicting Post-Click Conversion Rate via Counterfactual Inference

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04816 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04816/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 17 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 17 of 17)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [DeepFM: A Factorization-Machine based Neural Network for CTR Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04247/) (2017)
- [Deep Interest Evolution Network for Click-Through Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.03672/) (2018)
- [DCN V2: Improved Deep & Cross Network and Practical Lessons for Web-scale Learning to Rank Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.13535/) (2020)
- [AutoInt: Automatic Feature Interaction Learning via Self-Attentive Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.11921/) (2018)
- [Variational Autoencoders for Collaborative Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05814/) (2018)
- [Recommendations as Treatments: Debiasing Learning and Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05352/) (2016)
- [Entire Space Multi-Task Model: An Effective Approach for Estimating Post-Click Conversion Rate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.07931/) (2018)
- [Causal Intervention for Leveraging Popularity Bias in Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06067/) (2021)
- [Field-weighted Factorization Machines for Click-Through Rate Prediction in Display Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.03514/) (2018)
- [Deconfounded Recommendation for Alleviating Bias Amplification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10648/) (2021)
- [ESCM2: Entire Space Counterfactual Multi-Task Model for Post-Click Conversion Rate Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.05125/) (2022)
- [Large-scale Causal Approaches to Debiasing Post-click Conversion Rate Estimation with Multi-task Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09337/) (2019)
- [Nested Counterfactual Identification from Arbitrary Surrogate Experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03190/) (2021)
- [Top-N Recommendation with Counterfactual User Preference Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.02444/) (2021)
- [DCMT: A Direct Entire-Space Causal Multi-Task Framework for Post-Click Conversion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06141/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.