# SSM-CGM: Interpretable State-Space Forecasting Model of Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Personalized Diabetes Management

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04386 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04386/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [Mamba: Linear-Time Sequence Modeling with Selective State Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00752/) (2023)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Transformers are SSMs: Generalized Models and Efficient Algorithms Through Structured State Space Duality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.21060/) (2024)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12886/) (2022)
- [The Hidden Attention of Mamba Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.01590/) (2024)
- [TimeMachine: A Time Series is Worth 4 Mambas for Long-term Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09898/) (2024)
- [MambaTS: Improved Selective State Space Models for Long-term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16440/) (2024)
- [GlucoBench: Curated List of Continuous Glucose Monitoring Datasets with Prediction Benchmarks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05780/) (2024)
- [From Glucose Patterns to Health Outcomes: A Generalizable Foundation Model for Continuous Glucose Monitor Data Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11876/) (2024)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [The Driver-Blindness Phenomenon: Why Deep Sequence Models Default to Autocorrelation in Blood Glucose Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.20601/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) generates dense data streams critical for diabetes management, but most used forecasting models lack interpretability for clinical use. We present SSM-CGM, a Mamba-based neural state-space forecasting model that integrates CGM and wearable activity signals from the AI-READI cohort. SSM-CGM improves short-term accuracy over a Temporal Fusion Transformer baseline, adds interpretability through variable selection and temporal attribution, and enables counterfactual forecasts simulating how planned changes in physiological signals (e.g., heart rate, respiration) affect near-term glucose. Together, these features make SSM-CGM an interpretable, physiologically grounded framework for personalized diabetes management.