# Don't Pass@k: A Bayesian Framework for Large Language Model Evaluation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.04265 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04265/

## Key facts

- Cited by 15 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 74 of its 97 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Test-time compute and efficient thinking](https://mlsanity.com/lr/test-time-compute-and-efficient-thinking/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 74)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [LoRA: Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09685/) (2021)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.02531/) (2015)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models Trained on Code](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03374/) (2021)
- [Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.03300/) (2020)
- [Scaling Laws for Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08361/) (2020)
- [Efficient Memory Management for Large Language Model Serving with PagedAttention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.06180/) (2023)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [Training Compute-Optimal Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.15556/) (2022)
- [The Curious Case of Neural Text Degeneration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.09751/) (2019)
- [FlashAttention-2: Faster Attention with Better Parallelism and Work Partitioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08691/) (2023)
- [HuggingFace's Transformers: State-of-the-art Natural Language Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03771/) (2019)
- [Learning both Weights and Connections for Efficient Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02626/) (2015)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [GPTQ: Accurate Post-Training Quantization for Generative Pre-trained Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.17323/) (2022)
- [τ-bench: A Benchmark for Tool-Agent-User Interaction in Real-World Domains](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12045/) (2024)
- [Solving Quantitative Reasoning Problems with Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.14858/) (2022)
- [s1: Simple test-time scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.19393/) (2025)
- [Large Language Monkeys: Scaling Inference Compute with Repeated Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21787/) (2024)
- [LLM.int8(): 8-bit Matrix Multiplication for Transformers at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.07339/) (2022)
- [Do NOT Think That Much for 2+3=? On the Overthinking of o1-Like LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.21187/) (2024)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [EBPO: Empirical Bayes Shrinkage for Stabilizing Group-Relative Policy Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.05165/) (2026)
- [Evaluating LLMs When They Do Not Know the Answer: Statistical Evaluation of Mathematical Reasoning via Comparative Signals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.03061/) (2026)
- [Efficient Agent Evaluation via Diversity-Guided User Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.21480/) (2026)
- [Phantom Gains: Auditing Self-Improvement Against a Measured Null](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.20290/) (2026)
- [1% of Tokens Can Be Enough: On Gradient Estimation in On-Policy Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.24432/) (2026)
- [Sequential Bayesian Evaluation of Large Language Model Behavior](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.10661/) (2025)
- [RLVR is a Kernel, Not a Function: Statistical Inference for pass@k Crossovers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.22547/) (2026)
- [Anytime-Valid LLM Leaderboards via Benchmark-weighted and Block-Factorized e-Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32248/) (2026)
- [Scorio.jl: A Julia package for ranking stochastic responses](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14103/) (2026)
- [Medical Image Spatial Grounding with Semantic Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14579/) (2026)
- [CUDABeaver: Benchmarking LLM-Based Automated CUDA Debugging](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08455/) (2026)
- [Generative Responsible AI Data Evaluation Schema (GRAIDES) for AI Assurance in Local Government](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.20963/) (2026)
- [What Fixed-Rollout pass@k Evaluations Can Identify](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.09245/) (2026)
- [Does CoT-Pass@k Really Check the CoT? A Multilingual Mathematical Audit](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.32622/) (2026)
- [How to Run Statistics over LLM Judges and Trust the Results: Calibrated Inference for Small-Sample AI Evaluation with evalstats](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.35815/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Pass@k is widely used to report the reasoning performance of LLMs, but it often produces unstable and potentially misleading rankings, especially when the number of trials (samples) is limited and computational resources are constrained. We present a principled Bayesian evaluation framework that replaces Pass@k and average accuracy over N trials (avg@N) with posterior estimates of a model's underlying success probability and credible intervals, yielding stable rankings and a transparent decision rule for differences. Evaluation outcomes are modeled as categorical (not just 0/1) with a Dirichlet prior, giving closed-form expressions for the posterior mean and uncertainty of any weighted rubric and enabling the use of prior evidence when appropriate. Theoretically, under a uniform prior, the Bayesian posterior mean is order-equivalent to average accuracy (Pass@1), explaining its empirical robustness while adding principled uncertainty. Empirically, in simulations with known ground-truth success rates and on AIME'24/'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25, the posterior-based procedure achieves faster convergence and greater rank stability than Pass@k and recent variants, enabling reliable comparisons at far smaller sample counts. The framework clarifies when observed gaps are statistically meaningful (non-overlapping credible intervals) versus noise, and it naturally extends to graded, rubric-based evaluations. Together, these results recommend replacing Pass@k for LLM evaluation and ranking with a posterior-based, compute-efficient protocol that unifies binary and non-binary evaluation while making uncertainty explicit. Source code is available at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio