# Not Even Wrong: On the Limits of Prediction as Explanation in Cognitive Science

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.03311 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.03311/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2025.

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Small Foundation Models of Human Cognition and Behaviour](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.05224/) (2026)
- [Language Model Goal Selection Differs from Humans' in a Self-Directed Learning Task](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.03295/) (2026)
- [Taming the Centaur(s) with LAPITHS: a framework for a theoretically grounded interpretation of AI performances](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.27927/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We offer a comment on the Centaur (Binz et al., 2025) transformer-based model of human behavior. In particular, Centaur was cast as a path towards unified theories of cognition. We offer a counter claim with supporting argument: Centaur is a path divergent from unified theories of cognition, one that moves towards a unified model of behavior sans cognition.