# Confidence and Dispersity as Signals: Unsupervised Model Evaluation and Ranking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.02956 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.02956/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 69 of its 90 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Oct 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 69)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Learning Transferable Visual Models From Natural Language Supervision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.00020/) (2021)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [BLIP-2: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training with Frozen Image Encoders and Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12597/) (2023)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [BLIP: Bootstrapping Language-Image Pre-training for Unified Vision-Language Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12086/) (2022)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Sigmoid Loss for Language Image Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15343/) (2023)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16241/) (2020)
- [Do ImageNet Classifiers Generalize to ImageNet?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10811/) (2019)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Moment Matching for Multi-Source Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.01754/) (2018)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Learning Robust Global Representations by Penalizing Local Predictive Power](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13549/) (2019)
- [Learning Imbalanced Datasets with Label-Distribution-Aware Margin Loss](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.07413/) (2019)
- [Do We Really Need to Access the Source Data? Source Hypothesis Transfer for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08546/) (2020)
- [FLAVA: A Foundational Language And Vision Alignment Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.04482/) (2021)
- [Exploring Generalization in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08947/) (2017)
- [RepVGG: Making VGG-style ConvNets Great Again](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03697/) (2021)
- [Scaling Out-of-Distribution Detection for Real-World Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11132/) (2019)
- [Measuring Robustness to Natural Distribution Shifts in Image Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00644/) (2020)
- [ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10807/) (2022)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [Detecting and Correcting for Label Shift with Black Box Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.03916/) (2018)
- [On the Importance of Gradients for Detecting Distributional Shifts in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00218/) (2021)
- [Accuracy on the Line: On the Strong Correlation Between Out-of-Distribution and In-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04649/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [TopoGeoScore: A Self-Supervised Source-Only Geometric Framework for OOD Checkpoint Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08870/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Assessing model generalization under distribution shift is essential for real-world deployment, particularly when labeled test data is unavailable. This paper presents a unified and practical framework for unsupervised model evaluation and ranking in two common deployment settings: (1) estimating the accuracy of a fixed model on multiple unlabeled test sets (dataset-centric evaluation), and (2) ranking a set of candidate models on a single unlabeled test set (model-centric evaluation). We demonstrate that two intrinsic properties of model predictions, namely confidence (which reflects prediction certainty) and dispersity (which captures the diversity of predicted classes), together provide strong and complementary signals for generalization. We systematically benchmark a set of confidence-based, dispersity-based, and hybrid metrics across a wide range of model architectures, datasets, and distribution shift types. Our results show that hybrid metrics consistently outperform single-aspect metrics on both dataset-centric and model-centric evaluation settings. In particular, the nuclear norm of the prediction matrix provides robust and accurate performance across tasks, including real-world datasets, and maintains reliability under moderate class imbalance. These findings offer a practical and generalizable basis for unsupervised model assessment in deployment scenarios.