# Efficient Uncertainty Estimation for LLM-based Entity Linking in Tabular Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.01251 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.01251/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.13063/) (2023)
- [SelfCheckGPT: Zero-Resource Black-Box Hallucination Detection for Generative Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08896/) (2023)
- [Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Words](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14334/) (2022)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [TableLlama: Towards Open Large Generalist Models for Tables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09206/) (2023)
- [LM-Polygraph: Uncertainty Estimation for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07383/) (2023)
- [To Believe or Not to Believe Your LLM](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02543/) (2024)
- [Keep the Cost Down: A Review on Methods to Optimize LLM' s KV-Cache Consumption](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18003/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Estimation and Quantification for LLMs: A Simple Supervised Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.15993/) (2024)
- [Table-GPT: Table-tuned GPT for Diverse Table Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.09263/) (2023)
- [Look Before You Leap: An Exploratory Study of Uncertainty Measurement for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10236/) (2023)
- [Improving the Reliability of Large Language Models by Leveraging Uncertainty-Aware In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04782/) (2023)
- [Token-Level Density-Based Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Eliciting Truthfulness of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.14427/) (2025)
- [Probabilities of Chat LLMs Are Miscalibrated but Still Predict Correctness on Multiple-Choice Q&A](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.13213/) (2024)
- [Evaluating LLMs on Entity Disambiguation in Tables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.06423/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Linking textual values in tabular data to their corresponding entities in a Knowledge Base is a core task across a variety of data integration and enrichment applications. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown State-of-The-Art performance in Entity Linking (EL) tasks, their deployment in real-world scenarios requires not only accurate predictions but also reliable uncertainty estimates, which require resource-demanding multi-shot inference, posing serious limits to their actual applicability. As a more efficient alternative, we investigate a self-supervised approach for estimating uncertainty from single-shot LLM outputs using token-level features, reducing the need for multiple generations. Evaluation is performed on an EL task on tabular data across multiple LLMs, showing that the resulting uncertainty estimates are highly effective in detecting low-accuracy outputs. This is achieved at a fraction of the computational cost, ultimately supporting a cost-effective integration of uncertainty measures into LLM-based EL workflows. The method offers a practical way to incorporate uncertainty estimation into EL workflows with limited computational overhead.