# Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM) for Accelerated and Lightweight Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.00627 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.00627/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Diffusion and flow policies for robotics, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 35 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Oct 2025.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Diffusion and flow policies for robotics](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/diffusion-and-flow-policies-for-robotics/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 35)

- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.00667/) (2022)
- [Consistency Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01469/) (2023)
- [Diffusion Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00796/) (2022)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [Social-STGCNN: A Social Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network for Human Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.11927/) (2020)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Predictions for Autonomous Driving using Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10732/) (2018)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.06113/) (2019)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Transformer Networks for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08514/) (2020)
- [Stochastic Trajectory Prediction via Motion Indeterminacy Diffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.13777/) (2022)
- [Leapfrog Diffusion Model for Stochastic Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10895/) (2023)
- [Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion for Contextual Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.04776/) (2019)
- [GroupNet: Multiscale Hypergraph Neural Networks for Trajectory Prediction with Relational Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.08770/) (2022)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15004/) (2021)
- [EqMotion: Equivariant Multi-agent Motion Prediction with Invariant Interaction Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.10876/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty-aware Short-term Motion Prediction of Traffic Actors for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.05819/) (2018)
- [Remember Intentions: Retrospective-Memory-based Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11474/) (2022)
- [TraPHic: Trajectory Prediction in Dense and Heterogeneous Traffic Using Weighted Interactions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04767/) (2018)
- [An LSTM Network for Highway Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.07962/) (2018)
- [Dynamic Diffusion Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03456/) (2024)
- [Goal-GAN: Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Based on Goal Position Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.01114/) (2020)
- [A Comprehensive Survey on Knowledge Distillation of Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.04262/) (2023)
- [LC-LLM: Explainable Lane-Change Intention and Trajectory Predictions with Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.18344/) (2024)
- [EquiDiff: A Conditional Equivariant Diffusion Model For Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.06564/) (2023)
- [Predicting Motion of Vulnerable Road Users using High-Definition Maps and Efficient ConvNets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.08469/) (2019)
- [RobustTP: End-to-End Trajectory Prediction for Heterogeneous Road-Agents in Dense Traffic with Noisy Sensor Inputs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.08752/) (2019)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Trajectory prediction is a fundamental task in Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), supporting efficient motion planning and real-time traffic safety management. Diffusion models have recently demonstrated strong performance in probabilistic trajectory prediction, but their large model size and slow sampling process hinder real-world deployment. This paper proposes Collaborative-Distilled Diffusion Models (CDDM), a novel method for real-time and lightweight trajectory prediction. Built upon Collaborative Progressive Distillation (CPD), CDDM progressively transfers knowledge from a high-capacity teacher diffusion model to a lightweight student model, jointly reducing both the number of sampling steps and the model size across distillation iterations. A dual-signal regularized distillation loss is further introduced to incorporate guidance from both the teacher and ground-truth data, mitigating potential overfitting and ensuring robust performance. Extensive experiments on the ETH-UCY pedestrian benchmark and the nuScenes vehicle benchmark demonstrate that CDDM achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy. The well-distilled CDDM retains 96.2% and 95.5% of the baseline model's ADE and FDE performance on pedestrian trajectories, while requiring only 231K parameters and 4 or 2 sampling steps, corresponding to 161x compression, 31x acceleration, and 9 ms latency. Qualitative results further show that CDDM generates diverse and accurate trajectories under dynamic agent behaviors and complex social interactions. By bridging high-performing generative models with practical deployment constraints, CDDM enables resource-efficient probabilistic prediction for AVs and ITS. Code is available at https://github.com/bingzhangw/CDDM.