# ScalingAR: Scaling Confidence for Autoregressive Image Generation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.26376 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.26376/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 38 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 30 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 38)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [DeepSeekMath: Pushing the Limits of Mathematical Reasoning in Open Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03300/) (2024)
- [Qwen3 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.09388/) (2025)
- [Self-Consistency Improves Chain of Thought Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.11171/) (2022)
- [Neural Discrete Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00937/) (2017)
- [Let's Verify Step by Step](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.20050/) (2023)
- [Taming Transformers for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09841/) (2020)
- [Scaling LLM Test-Time Compute Optimally can be More Effective than Scaling Model Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.03314/) (2024)
- [Generating Diverse High-Fidelity Images with VQ-VAE-2](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00446/) (2019)
- [Scaling Autoregressive Models for Content-Rich Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.10789/) (2022)
- [ImageReward: Learning and Evaluating Human Preferences for Text-to-Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05977/) (2023)
- [Visual Autoregressive Modeling: Scalable Image Generation via Next-Scale Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.02905/) (2024)
- [GenEval: An Object-Focused Framework for Evaluating Text-to-Image Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.11513/) (2023)
- [Chameleon: Mixed-Modal Early-Fusion Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.09818/) (2024)
- [Janus-Pro: Unified Multimodal Understanding and Generation with Data and Model Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.17811/) (2025)
- [Emu3: Next-Token Prediction is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.18869/) (2024)
- [Autoregressive Model Beats Diffusion: Llama for Scalable Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.06525/) (2024)
- [Show-o: One Single Transformer to Unify Multimodal Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.12528/) (2024)
- [Autoregressive Image Generation using Residual Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01941/) (2022)
- [Autoregressive Image Generation without Vector Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11838/) (2024)
- [Beyond the 80/20 Rule: High-Entropy Minority Tokens Drive Effective Reinforcement Learning for LLM Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.01939/) (2025)
- [LIMO: Less is More for Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.03387/) (2025)
- [Janus: Decoupling Visual Encoding for Unified Multimodal Understanding and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13848/) (2024)
- [SEED-X: Multimodal Models with Unified Multi-granularity Comprehension and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14396/) (2024)
- [Infinity: Scaling Bitwise AutoRegressive Modeling for High-Resolution Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04431/) (2024)
- [TTRL: Test-Time Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.16084/) (2025)
- [Deep Think with Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.15260/) (2025)
- [Scalable Best-of-N Selection for Large Language Models via Self-Certainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18581/) (2025)
- [T2I-R1: Reinforcing Image Generation with Collaborative Semantic-level and Token-level CoT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.00703/) (2025)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Show, Don't Tell: Morphing Latent Reasoning into Image Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2602.02227/) (2026)
- [(1D) Ordered Tokens Enable Efficient Test-Time Search](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.15453/) (2026)
- [FR-TTS: Test-Time Scaling for NTP-based Image Generation with Effective Filling-based Reward Signal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.00438/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Test-time strategies have shown remarkable success in improving large language models, but their application to next-token prediction (NTP) autoregressive (AR) image generation remains largely underexplored. Existing test-time scaling (TTS) methods for visual autoregressive models (VAR) rely on frequent partial decoding and external reward models, which are inefficient and often ineffective for NTP-based image generation due to the inherent instability of intermediate decoding results. To address these limitations, we propose ScalingAR, a novel test-time scaling framework tailored for NTP-based AR image generation. ScalingAR introduces token entropy as a confidence signal and operates at two complementary levels: (i) Profile Level, integrates intrinsic uncertainty and conditional utilization into a unified confidence state, and (ii) Policy Level, leverages this state for adaptive trajectory pruning and dynamic guidance scheduling. Without requiring early decoding or auxiliary rewards, ScalingAR achieves significant improvements across diverse benchmarks. Experiments show that ScalingAR (I) improves base models by 12.5% on GenEval and 15.2% on TIIF-Bench, (II) reduces visual token consumption by 62.0% while outperforming baselines, and (III) enhances robustness, mitigating performance degradation by 26.0% in challenging scenarios. These results establish ScalingAR as a robust and efficient test-time scaling solution for autoregressive image generation.