# Bayesian Transformer for Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Concentration Mapping and Uncertainty Estimation using Sentinel-1, RCM, and AMSR2 Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25437 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25437/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 9 of its 79 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 9 of 9)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [SegFormer: Simple and Efficient Design for Semantic Segmentation with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.15203/) (2021)
- [Deep High-Resolution Representation Learning for Visual Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.07919/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [TerraMind: Large-Scale Generative Multimodality for Earth Observation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.11171/) (2025)
- [Heterogeneous Mixture of Experts for Remote Sensing Image Super-Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.09654/) (2025)
- [Seasonal Forecasting of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice with State Space Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.10665/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Although high-resolution mapping of Pan-Arctic sea ice with reliable corresponding uncertainty is essential for operational sea ice concentration (SIC) charting, it is a difficult task due to some key challenges, e.g., the subtle nature of ice signature features, model uncertainty, and data heterogeneity. This letter presents a novel Bayesian Transformer approach for Pan-Arctic SIC mapping and uncertainty quantification using Sentinel-1, RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) data. First, to improve feature extraction, we design a novel high-resolution Transformer model with both global and local modules that can better discern the subtle differences in sea ice patterns. Second, to improve uncertainty quantification, we design a Bayesian extension of the proposed Transformer model, treating its parameters as random variables to more effectively capture uncertainties. Third, to address data heterogeneity, we fuse three different data types (Sentinel-1, RCM, and AMSR2) at decision-level to improve both SIC mapping and uncertainty quantification. The proposed approach is tested on Pan-Arctic datasets from September 2021, and the results demonstrate that the proposed model can achieve both high-resolution SIC maps and robust uncertainty maps compared to other uncertainty quantification approaches.