# Predicting Training Re-evaluation Curves Enables Effective Data Curriculums for LLMs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25380 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25380/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 86 of its 107 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 86)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [The Llama 3 Herd of Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.21783/) (2024)
- [Training Verifiers to Solve Math Word Problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14168/) (2021)
- [Measuring Mathematical Problem Solving With the MATH Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03874/) (2021)
- [Overcoming catastrophic forgetting in neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00796/) (2016)
- [Gemini 1.5: Unlocking multimodal understanding across millions of tokens of context](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05530/) (2024)
- [Switch Transformers: Scaling to Trillion Parameter Models with Simple and Efficient Sparsity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.03961/) (2021)
- [Phi-3 Technical Report: A Highly Capable Language Model Locally on Your Phone](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.14219/) (2024)
- [GLU Variants Improve Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05202/) (2020)
- [Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04730/) (2017)
- [GShard: Scaling Giant Models with Conditional Computation and Automatic Sharding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16668/) (2020)
- [Don't Stop Pretraining: Adapt Language Models to Domains and Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10964/) (2020)
- [Scaling Language Models: Methods, Analysis & Insights from Training Gopher](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.11446/) (2021)
- [Train Short, Test Long: Attention with Linear Biases Enables Input Length Extrapolation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.12409/) (2021)
- [Gemma: Open Models Based on Gemini Research and Technology](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08295/) (2024)
- [Adafactor: Adaptive Learning Rates with Sublinear Memory Cost](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.04235/) (2018)
- [Quantifying Memorization Across Neural Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07646/) (2022)
- [MiniCPM: Unveiling the Potential of Small Language Models with Scalable Training Strategies](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.06395/) (2024)
- [DeepSeek LLM: Scaling Open-Source Language Models with Longtermism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.02954/) (2024)
- [Grokking: Generalization Beyond Overfitting on Small Algorithmic Datasets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.02177/) (2022)
- [Generating Sequences With Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1308.0850/) (2013)
- [LESS: Selecting Influential Data for Targeted Instruction Tuning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.04333/) (2024)
- [What Neural Networks Memorize and Why: Discovering the Long Tail via Influence Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.03703/) (2020)
- [Shampoo: Preconditioned Stochastic Tensor Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09568/) (2018)
- [DataComp-LM: In search of the next generation of training sets for language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11794/) (2024)
- [2 OLMo 2 Furious](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00656/) (2024)
- [Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03296/) (2023)
- [An Empirical Model of Large-Batch Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.06162/) (2018)
- [Sophia: A Scalable Stochastic Second-order Optimizer for Language Model Pre-training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14342/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Synthetic Persona Pretraining: Alignment from Token Zero](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.13482/) (2026)
- [Optimizer Memory Schedules for Outscaling the Overtraining Axis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.04577/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Data curriculums have become central to successful LLM training, yet principles governing optimal data placement remain unclear. We introduce the *training re-evaluation curve (TREC)*, a diagnostic that retrospectively evaluates training batches *using the final model weights*. The TREC characterizes how well a trained model retains training data as a function of *when* the data was encountered during training. Analyzing TRECs for models from 111M to 3.9B parameters, we show that placing high-quality data at low points on the TREC significantly improves performance. Importantly, while a TREC is initially observable only after training, we demonstrate it can be *predicted in advance* from AdamW's implicit EMA coefficients, enabling proactive curriculum design. By predicting TRECs for published training recipes, we explain prior ablations and reveal suboptimal data placements. We also align high-quality data with TREC minima in order to improve continual pre-training of a 3.9B-parameter LLM trained on 900B tokens.