# How Effective Are Time-Series Models for Precipitation Nowcasting? A Comprehensive Benchmark for GNSS-based Precipitation Nowcasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.25263 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.25263/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Sep 2025.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.06625/) (2023)
- [Non-stationary Transformers: Exploring the Stationarity in Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14415/) (2022)
- [xLSTM: Extended Long Short-Term Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.04517/) (2024)
- [TFB: Towards Comprehensive and Fair Benchmarking of Time Series Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.20150/) (2024)
- [TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.19072/) (2024)
- [GIFT-Eval: A Benchmark For General Time Series Forecasting Model Evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.10393/) (2024)
- [Deep Learning for Precipitation Nowcasting: A Benchmark and A New Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03458/) (2017)
- [LargeST: A Benchmark Dataset for Large-Scale Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.08259/) (2023)
- [TimeMixer++: A General Time Series Pattern Machine for Universal Predictive Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.16032/) (2024)
- [Koopa: Learning Non-stationary Time Series Dynamics with Koopman Predictors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18803/) (2023)
- [SegRNN: Segment Recurrent Neural Network for Long-Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.11200/) (2023)
- [MSGNet: Learning Multi-Scale Inter-Series Correlations for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.00423/) (2023)
- [TimeBridge: Non-Stationarity Matters for Long-term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04442/) (2024)
- [From Similarity to Superiority: Channel Clustering for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.01340/) (2024)
- [xPatch: Dual-Stream Time Series Forecasting with Exponential Seasonal-Trend Decomposition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.17323/) (2024)
- [TimeKAN: KAN-based Frequency Decomposition Learning Architecture for Long-term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.06910/) (2025)
- [Unlocking the Power of LSTM for Long Term Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10006/) (2024)
- [FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.18834/) (2025)
- [SubseasonalClimateUSA: A Dataset for Subseasonal Forecasting and Benchmarking](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.10399/) (2021)
- [FilterTS: Comprehensive Frequency Filtering for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.04158/) (2025)
- [Deep learning for precipitation nowcasting: A survey from the perspective of time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04867/) (2024)
- [Cherry-Picking in Time Series Forecasting: How to Select Datasets to Make Your Model Shine](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.14435/) (2024)
- [Physiome-ODE: A Benchmark for Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Based on Biological ODEs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.07489/) (2025)
- [PostRainBench: A comprehensive benchmark and a new model for precipitation forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02676/) (2023)
- [TSPP: A Unified Benchmarking Tool for Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.17100/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [MambaRain: Multi-Scale Mamba-Attention Framework for 0-3 Hour Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.14606/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Precipitation Nowcasting, which aims to predict precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours, is critical for disaster mitigation and real-time response planning. However, most time series forecasting benchmarks in meteorology are evaluated on variables with strong periodicity, such as temperature and humidity, which fail to reflect model capabilities in more complex and practically meteorology scenarios like precipitation nowcasting. To address this gap, we propose RainfallBench, a benchmark designed for precipitation nowcasting, a highly challenging and practically relevant task characterized by zero inflation, temporal decay, and non-stationarity, focusing on predicting precipitation within the next 0 to 6 hours. The dataset is derived from five years of meteorological observations, recorded at hourly intervals across six essential variables, and collected from more than 140 Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations globally. In particular, it incorporates precipitable water vapor (PWV), a crucial indicator of rainfall that is absent in other datasets. We further design specialized evaluation protocols to assess model performance on key meteorological challenges, including multi-scale prediction, multi-resolution forecasting, and extreme rainfall events, benchmarking 17 state-of-the-art models across six major architectures on RainfallBench. Additionally, to address the zero-inflation and temporal decay issues overlooked by existing models, we introduce Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF), a plug-and-play module that incorporates domain-specific priors to enhance rainfall time series forecasting. Statistical analysis and ablation studies validate the comprehensiveness of our dataset as well as the superiority of our methodology.